The Oklahoma City Thunder’s opponent on Wednesday night might provide a little bit of context to their NBA-best 37-8 record. In order to tie the Golden State Warriors — who will host them at the Chase Center at 10 p.m. ET — for the best regular-season record in NBA history, the Thunder will have to win 36 of the season’s final 37 games. But Oklahoma City would gladly trade that for the ring that the 2015-16 Warriors never won.
While the Thunder have been probably the best team in the NBA over the last 10 games, posting a league-best plus-12.9 net rating, Golden State’s struggles have continued. The Warriors are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a negative-2.9 net rating, and they looked doomed to remain outside the Play-In Tournament picture unless they make a big move prior to the February 6 trade deadline.
Oklahoma City is a 10-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-440 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 223. Meanwhile, Golden State is +340 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ve outlined my favorite prop bets for Wednesday’s nationally-televised clash.
Isaiah Hartenstein 13+ Rebounds (+140)
The Warriors have been surprisingly okay on the boards in the last nine games, even with Draymond Green — one of the better pound-for-pound rebounders in basketball — playing just three minutes across that span. Golden State’s tallest rotation player is six-foot-nine Trayce Jackson-Davis, who averages only 6.3 boards per game. Despite all this, the Warriors have somehow allowed the 11th-fewest rebounds in the league over the last nine games.
I still think Hartenstein, whose Thunder have lost just twice with him in the lineup, should be able to control the glass against Golden State. His 12.2 rebounds per game rank fifth in the NBA, and his 29.9 minutes per game are the third-lowest among the 17 players who average 10 or more boards, so he’s well-suited to rack up boards as long as Oklahoma City doesn’t blow out the Warriors and relegate him to the bench early. The Thunder’s stifling perimeter defense holds opponents to the second-lowest field goal percentage in the league and Golden State shoots the sixth-lowest percentage, so Hartenstein should have plenty of opportunities to clean up misses.
Stephen Curry O3.5 Turnovers (-110)
Despite his recent five-game shooting slump, Curry has actually held onto the ball pretty well, recording three or fewer turnovers in each of his past five games. However, if any team is poised to bait him into mistakes, it’s Oklahoma City, which somehow has four players — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace — in the league’s top 12 in steals per game, and, by the way, Caruso doesn’t even start. Mark Daigneault and Sam Presti have done a tremendous job getting the most out of this team, and unsurprisingly, the Thunder lead the league in forced turnovers, coaxing 1.7 more than any other team. I can see Curry struggling, especially if his nagging knee injury — which held him out of last night’s win over the Utah Jazz — continues to cause issues.
Andrew Wiggins O23.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)
I’ve been really negative on the Warriors in this piece — I mean, they haven’t won three games in a row since November, so I think it’s fair — so let’s end on a positive. After a rough season in 2023-24 that saw him briefly lose his starting spot to Jonathan Kuminga, small forward Andrew Wiggins has found his form again, bouncing back to 17.2 points per game and shooting a career-best 78.8% from the free throw line. He’s posted 20 or more points in five of his last eight games with Kuminga and Green out, and he has also posted at least 24 combined points and rebounds five times during that span.
Oklahoma City has the best defense in the league, allowing 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other team, so it’s not exactly going to be easy for Wiggins. However, in the eight games since Green’s injury, his usage rate has jumped 3.4 percentage points, his rebounding average has increased by one per game, and his scoring average has risen by 3.6 points per contest compared to his stats alongside Green. The Thunder also allow the fourth-most rebounds per game, the one hole in their pristine defensive resume.
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