Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Celtics star Jayson Tayum to have a 50% chance to play today in a game where the Celtics are comfortable 14.5-point favorites at home versus Chicago. After a tough game on Monday versus Houston where Tatum struggled — and with him listed on the injury report with knee issues — there’s a very realistic chance that the usually reliable Tatum could miss tonight’s matchup.
If Tatum plays tonight, he’ll be one of the most interesting plays on the slate for DraftKings tournaments and he’ll look good in betting markets, as well. Boston’s 121.3 implied total is one of the highest on the slate and the Celtics should gain about five possessions in a pace-up spot versus the Bulls, who are number two in the league with a 103.4 pace.
If you assume Tatum — and his fellow questionable but far less relevant teammate Al Horford — play tonight, Tatum looks like a strong DFS play and prop bet. Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections project Tatum for 24.7 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists. At under 10% owned given the matchup with Chicago, Tatum is an intriguing play for large-field tournaments. Chicago plays fast, defends poorly, and still find ways to be competitive in games — a massive upside situation for Tatum if he does play.
If Tatum sits, he’ll open up a ton of possessions based upon his 30.6% usage rate and 24.6% assist rate on the year. Tatum also scoops up 13.4% of the rebounds while he’s on the floor, opening up a lot of potential fantasy points given Tatum’s 1.35 DraftKings Points Per Minute this season.
If Tatum is out tonight, his teammates would see the following expected boost in production courtest of Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections:
- Jaylen Brown projects for 24.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists (21.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists if Tatum plays)
- Kristaps Porzingis projects for 23.1 points, 8.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists (19.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists if Tatum plays)
- Derrick White projects for 17.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists (14.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists if Tatum plays)
- Jrue Holiday projects for 11.7 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists (10.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists if Tatum plays)
- Payton Pritchard projects for 13.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists (12.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists if Tatum plays)
Given that Jaylen Brown in particular projects for between 20% and 25% ownership as it is with Tatum assumed to play in projection sets, Brown would likely become one of the most owned and most crucial plays on the slate for tonight’s DraftKings NBA Zone tournament with a $5 entry fee and $100,000 to first place.
You would also find massive Expected Value on DraftKings Sportsbook prop bets if Tatum sits. Unabated’s bet simulation tools would anticipate 32.9% EV on Derrick White’s over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet and 19.6% EV on Payton Pritchard’s over 20.5 PRAs line. These are bets that would be much less valuable if Tatum plays, but ones that you should leap to place the moment Tatum is ruled out.
If Tatum plays, Unabated sees a huge 18.1% Expected Value on Jaylen Brown’s under 35.5 PRAs on DraftKings Sportsbook and 5% EV on Tatum himself at under 40.5 PRAs. There are huge ramifications for all forms of gambling tonight whether Jayson Tatum plays or he sits.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
