Here we are again.
After yet another clutch victory over the Buffalo Bills in the postseason, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves playing in the Super Bowl for the third consecutive year. They’ll be looking to make history by winning all three, though the Philadelphia Eagles likely have other ideas.
DraftKings offers a wide variety of ways to get in on the action for the big game, including an array of prop bets and, of course, a massive Showdown DFS contest with a million dollar first prize.
Here’s everything you need to know about Patrick Mahomes heading into Super Bowl LIX.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets
Passing Yards: Over 249.5 (-111)
Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-179)
Interceptions: Over 0.5 (-105)
Passing Attempts: Over 36.5 (-104)
Passing Completions: Over 23.5 (-125)
Passing + Rushing Yards: Over 284.5 (-112)
Longest Completion: Over 34.5 (-120)
Patrick Mahomes Best Prop Bet
Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards (-110)
As you can imagine, there are hundreds of Patrick Mahomes props on the DraftKings Sportsbook, but my current favorite is taking the under on his longest completion. It hasn’t exactly been the most impressive statistical campaign for the future Hall of Fame quarterback. In fact, Mahomes threw for fewer than 4,000 yards for the first time in his career during the regular season. He also set new career-lows in yards per pass attempt (6.8) and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.0). Knowing all that, it probably won’t be shocking to learn that of the 42 QBs to play at least 25% of their team’s snaps, Mahomes ranked 40th in aDOT (6.9).
This has simply not been an offense that’s pushed the ball down the field through the air and I don’t think that’s going to suddenly change in the Super Bowl — especially given how well Philadelphia’s pass defense has played all year long. The Eagles allowed an NFC-low 184.9 opponent passing yards per game during the regular season. More specific to this prop, Philadelphia surrendered just 5.5 opponent yards per pass attempt, which was far and away the lowest mark in the league. That’s why the Eagles also rank first in fewest opponent passing plays of over 20 yards (35).
Patrick Mahomes DFS Analysis
Captain: $15,000 | FLEX: $10,000
It’s been an underwhelming fantasy campaign for Mahomes. Heck, in Mahomes first 14 starts of the regular season, he only exceeded 20 FPTS two times. That translated into averaging just 0.44 FPTS per drop back — a figure that trailed the likes of Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence and Drake Maye. That’s not quite the company we’re used to seeing Mahomes keep.
That said, Mahomes is directly on the heels of his biggest fantasy outburst of the season, hanging 31.1 FPTS on the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. A big element of that performance was Mahomes scrambling ability, as the pivot set a new season-high with 11 carries and found the end zone twice. Obviously that’s not the most sustainable path to DFS relevance, but Mahomes has shown a willingness to run when called upon in the biggest moments. Moments don’t come much bigger than the Super Bowl.
Given the difficulty of the matchup — The Eagles have surrendered the fourth-fewest FPTS per contest to opposing QBs this season — and Mahomes’ hefty price tag, I’d be hesitant to Captain the former MVP. Still, it’s difficult to suggest an all-out fade of an asset that possesses as much talent as Mahomes. He’s perfectly viable in a FLEX spot.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $5M Super Bowl LIX Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Super Bowl)
