Tonight’s nationally-televised NBA slate, frankly, leaves a lot to be desired. Lakers at 76ers would’ve been fun if Joel Embiid or Paul George were healthy, but they’re Joel Embiid and Paul George, so of course they’re not. Bucks at Trail Blazers would also be fun if it were Damian Lillard’s homecoming, but he already played once in the Rose City last season.
Still, seeing Giannis Antetokounmpo take the court is always entertaining, and after struggling mightily to start his NBA career, Trail Blazers point guard Scoot Henderson is finally rounding into an NBA-quality player.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Milwaukee is a 5.5-point favorite (-205 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 229. Meanwhile, Portland is +170 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
Bettors are all-in on Milwaukee, as they’ve attracted 84% of the bets and 80% of the handle despite having just a 64% implied win probability. The Bucks are among the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference, having won eight of their last 10 games to climb into fourth, just three and a half games behind the New York Knicks and three games clear of the Play-In Tournament picture, with the league’s fourth-best net rating across that span. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers have lost four of their last 10 and have been outscored by 5.5 points per 100 possessions in their last 10. Most recently, Portland stayed competitive against the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday.
The public is also confident that Milwaukee will cover the 5.5-point spread, as the Bucks have attracted 64% of all bets and 79% of the handle, indicating that big-money bettors are particularly bullish on Milwaukee to close the game out early. The inconsistent Bucks are 22-22-1 against the spread this season, while the Trail Blazers have slightly over-performed, going 25-20-1. Portland has covered the spread in each of the last four games against against Milwaukee.
Big-money bettors are especially high on both teams’ offenses, given that 70% of the handle has come in on the game to go over 229 points despite the over attracting only 54% of total bets. Overall, a slight majority of both teams’ games have gone under the point total: the over is 22-23 in Bucks games and 21-24-1 in Trail Blazers games. More recently, three of Milwaukee’s last five games have gone over, while three of Portland’s last five have gone under, with the loss to the Thunder being a push. Games at the Moda Center have typically been high-scoring, with the over going 13-8-1 in the Trail Blazers’ home games.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Wednesday’s game:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 1st Points Scorer (+320)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo U12.5 Rebounds (-120)
- Damian Lillard 1st Points Scorer (+550)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo U5.5 Assists (+110)
- Damian Lillard U27.5 Points (-115)
All five of the most popular bets are on Bucks players, although interestingly, three of them imply confidence in Portland’s defense — or, perhaps, they imply that Milwaukee is going to win in a blowout and rest its stars late in the game, especially on the second night of a back-to-back.
Most of the Trail Blazers’ most productive players — including veteran Deandre Ayton and rookie Donovan Clingan — are bigs, but that hasn’t stopped Portland from giving up 44.9 rebounds per game, the 10th-most in basketball. The Trail Blazers are actually better at preventing assists (11th-most) than at preventing rebounds. Antetokounmpo has recorded fewer than 13 rebounds in 21 of his 38 games, although he is averaging 13.6 boards in his last 10 games, and he has also recorded five or fewer assists in exactly half of his games.
Portland has also allowed the eighth-most points per game in the league, even though they play at its 13th-slowest pace, and their guards — Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, and Henderson – are going to have a hard time slowing down Lillard, who dropped 25 points in his return to Moda Center on January 31, 2024. Dame Time is enjoying somewhat of a bounce-back season after an inconsistent first season in Milwaukee, although he has scored 27 or fewer points 21 times in his 37 starts.
Of the longer shots, Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks with a 33.6% first-quarter usage rate, while Lillard’s is 26.7%. Antetokounmpo has scored the game’s first points seven times, while Lillard has done it five times.
Here are the two most popular bets on Trail Blazers players:
- Scoot Henderson 3+ Rebounds (-150)
- Anfernee Simons U3.5 Three-Pointers Made (-140)
Despite coming off the bench, Henderson has played pretty well as of late, but, at six-foot-three, 202 pounds, he’s never going to be a massive force on the boards. He has collected three or more rebounds in 21 of his 39 games. Simons, meanwhile, has made three or fewer three-pointers in 26 of his 42 games, although Milwaukee does allow the eighth-most made threes per game.
