As Samaje Perine took a screen pass past the line to gain in the waning moments of the AFC Championship Game, Patrick Mahomes knew it was over.
As soon as Perine passed the chains, Mahomes raised his arms in elation, the Kansas City Chiefs’ season-long quest to become the first team to reach a Super Bowl after winning each of the previous two finally realized. With a win in Super Bowl LIX on February 9, the Chiefs could solidify their dynasty by capping off the greatest three-year run by any team in NFL history and lifting the fourth Lombardi Trophy of Mahomes’ young career.
Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles won’t make it easy. The Eagles had a statement victory in the NFC Championship Game earlier Sunday, thrashing the Washington Commanders, 55-23, behind a postseason record seven rushing touchdowns. Philadelphia — much like Kansas City — is peaking at the right time.
The Eagles won’t be a new Super Bowl opponent for the Chiefs, who notched a spectacular 38-35 victory in Super Bowl LVII, but Barkley was a New York Giant at the time. Quarterback Jalen Hurts was spectacular in that game and will surely be hungry for redemption.
It may not be the Super Bowl that America wanted — both of Sunday’s losing quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels, had compelling history of their own to chase — but it’ll be a Super Bowl that we fundamentally all expected, and it has all the makings of an instant classic.
Kansas City enters as a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 49.5. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is +105 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ve outlined my favorite prop bets for football’s biggest game.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (-105)
The Chiefs may be the one team that can stop the Tush Push, having stopped Allen short of the line to gain early in the fourth quarter in a critical fourth-down stop that was worth 6.3 percentage points of win probability, according to ESPN.
But while Bills running back Ty Johnson — all of five feet, 10 inches and 210 pounds — shoved Allen on that pivotal play, the Eagles have six-foot-five, 256-pound Dallas Goedert and the six-foot, 233-pound Barkley line up behind Hurts in their signature version. This season, the play has been virtually unstoppable; Hurts’ 14 rushing touchdowns led the league among quarterbacks, a stat he has topped in each of the past four seasons.
Hurts found the end zone at least once in 10 of his 15 regular season games and two of Philadelphia’s postseason games. He scored three rushing touchdowns during the NFC Championship Game, as well as in the Super Bowl LVII defeat. Overall, he takes 51.7% of the Eagles’ rushes within the opponent’s five-yard line, by far the highest of any non-running back.
Meanwhile, while Kansas City has one of the league’s best rushing defenses, it has been somewhat beatable by mobile quarterbacks, giving up the seventh-most yards (434) and eighth-most touchdowns (4) to the position in the regular season.
Saquon Barkley 25+ Rushing Attempts (+139)
While Hurts’ efficient passing was a critical factor in the blowout win over the Commanders, Philadelphia’s offense starts and ends with Barkley, whose 345 carries during the regular season were the third-most by any back in the last 10 seasons, behind a pair of Derrick Henry campaigns. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore operated the league’s single most run-dependent offense during the regular season, and a ground attack is sure to be his Plan A in the Super Bowl.
Entering the NFC Championship Game, Barkley had taken at least 25 carries in each of his past four games, accumulating 101 carries, 641 yards, and four touchdowns across that span. He only had 15 carries (for 118 yards and three scores) against Washington, but a balky calf and the lopsided scoreline limited him to just 73% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps. Barring a surprising development, the Super Bowl shouldn’t be a blowout, so Moore will stick with his most reliable back.
Of course, the Chiefs’ rushing defense, which held opposing running backs to 1,610 total yards — the fewest in the league — and nine total touchdowns — the third-fewest — during the regular season, might incentivize Hurts to throw. But Kansas City’s secondary, while merely average overall, has plenty of playmakers, including Trent McDuffie, Pro Football Focus’ second-graded cornerback, so it’s not like passing will come easily to Hurts either.
Travis Kelce 70+ Receiving Yards (+115)
Kelce had a shockingly quiet night in the AFC Championship, hauling in just two passes for 19 yards, the first time in 14 games that the future Hall of Famer failed to reach 70 yards. It might be a sign of his advancing age or attributable to Mahomes’ receiving corps, headlined by rookie speedster Xavier Worthy, which might just be the most talented it’s been since Tyreek Hill departed for Miami.
Still, I think it’s merely an aberration, as Kelce is still clearly the Chiefs’ most reliable target and arguably the playoff GOAT. He needs just 195 yards and three touchdowns to pass Jerry Rice for the all-time lead in receiving yards and touchdowns in the postseason. This season, Kelce led the team with a 24.1% target share, and only reserve tight end Noah Gray and Perine had better catch percentages than his 72.9%. Plus, the 35-year-old has hinted repeatedly at retirement throughout the season, so Mahomes might have a little extra incentive to throw him the ball during the Super Bowl.
The Eagles won’t make it easy, as they allowed the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season behind arguably the best secondary depth in the league. However, Commanders tight end Zach Ertz was the team’s leading receiver during the NFC Championship Game, hauling in 11 passes for 104 yards, and during Super Bowl LVII, Kelce caught six passes for 81 yards and a score.
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