The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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THE FIELD
This event was transformed last season into one of four PGA TOUR Signature events for 2024. What that means is that instead of the typical 154-man field we used to see at this event (with a three-day cut line) we now have a condensed field of just 80 golfers with no weekend cut. Despite the changes, this event will still maintain some of its original charm.
Players will play on two different courses for the first two days of the event with each player getting in one round on Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach (host course). Amateurs will still be a part of the proceedings as well. However, the amateur/Pro-Am portion of the event will only last until Friday, and on the weekend the pros will dominate the spotlight. The final two rounds will be “pro-only” and both be played at the classic Pebble Beach layout.
The glitz and glamour of this event will be cut down significantly (don’t expect to see Bill Murray dancing with old ladies in the crowd) but the tradeoff is the field, which is significantly stronger than normal. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are both teeing it up this week for their first PGA start of 2025 and we have eight of the world’s top 10 players in attendance in the OWGR.
For DFS, this event has produced a lot of longshot winners in the past, but last year saw a quality player and major winner in Wyndham Clark triumph. For 2025, it’s likely we’ll see another quality name rise to the top on Sunday.
The Courses
Pebble Beach (main course), par 72, 7,051 yards; Greens: Poa Annua
Spyglass Hill par 72, 7,041 yards; Greens: Poa Annua
As mentioned above, golfers will rotate between just two courses this year, playing each course once prior to the weekend where the entire pro field will move to Pebble Beach. Even though Spyglass Hill can often play slightly tougher than Pebble Beach, it is more wind-protected, so having your player there on a windy day isn’t such a bad thing. In 2020, the weather really made things tough as Spyglass played to a 72.876 scoring average and ranked as the fifth-toughest course on the PGA TOUR, while Pebble Beach also played tough at a 72.55 scoring average and was the eighth-toughest venue on the PGA TOUR out of 41. These courses are short but when the wind is up the smaller greens in play make them extremely difficult.
As far as layout goes, the host course (Pebble Beach) is a traditional par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. Three of the four par 5s often play under 550 yards in length and only one par 3 is over 200 yards. Even though there are some longer par 4s, length off the tee isn’t all that essential this week and the average driving distance for the field is generally 10-15 yards lower this week than the average PGA TOUR event. Many of the holes force players to club down off the tee (either due to doglegs or shorter fairways) and it’s worth noting that three of the past seven winners of this event have lost strokes off the tee for the week; including 2023 winner Justin Rose (-0.4 OTT in 2023).
Despite this being a less-than-driver course, there is still plenty of trouble lurking around Pebble Beach, and players can get in trouble both off the tee and around the green. As a result, a solid approach game and iron play are a must. Six of the top 10 finishers at this event in 2023 gained 2.0 strokes or more on approach.
Around the green play can also be of vital importance at Pebble, especially if the wind is bad and causing more missed greens. Six of the top seven players in 2020 gained +1.2 strokes or more around the greens, and the last two winners Justin Rose and Wyndham Clark, have gained 2.6 strokes and 1.4 strokes ATG.
This is also our second event in a row where bumpy, Poa Annua greens will be in play. The wet weather allowed players to sink a ton of birdies last season at Pebble, with Clark shooting a 60 in Round 3 and winning at -17 (in just three rounds). However, hot and dry weather in California means we may see the greens play much firmer, so fast green surfaces could make this more of a US Open-style test. Regardless, good West Coast form and experience playing on Poa is a solid plus this week.
One final note: With a course rotation in play, a lot of how the tournament shapes out can depend on the weather and wind patterns. Wave stacking, but more importantly, course stacking, is something that can be considered for classic DFS lineups, especially if we have a windy forecast (see below).
2025 Weather/Outlook: The weather at this event can be very hit-or-miss. Luckily for 2025, it doesn’t look like this event will have any of the problems that caused it to become a rain-shortened 54-hole event in 2024. Thursday starts off cool with highs around 55F but with little wind. Friday is very similar although there are overcast skies forecast and a small chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon-evening. For DFS, it doesn’t appear that we’re likely to get a huge wave split, but again, it’s always better to have your player on Pebble on a less windy day, so looking back later in the week will be crucial. For showdown lineups targeting players on Pebble will generally be a plus as well. Spyglass almost always plays slightly tougher from an average stroke perspective so you’ll want to lean towards players on Pebble for the most part for one-day contests on Days 1 and 2.
Last five winners
2024 – Wyndham Clark -17 (over Ludvig Aberg -16 – three-day event)
2023— Justin Rose -18 (over Brendon Todd and Brandon Wu -15)
2022 — Tom Hoge -19 (over Jordan Spieth -20)
2021 — Daniel Berger -18 (over Maverick McNealy -16)
2020 — Nick Taylor -19 (over Kevin Streelman -15)
Winning Trends
- Since 2009, the winner at Pebble Beach (including the U.S. Open) had a T18 or better in one or more of his previous three starts at Pebble Beach — courtesy @Jude_UT4 on Twitter.
- Recent form is also important this week: Nine of the past 14 winners recorded a top 10 or better in one of their previous two starts on the PGA TOUR before winning here.
Winners Stats and Course Highlights
2024 Winner: Wyndham Clark
2024 lead-in form (T39-T29-T3-T15-T66)
SG: OTT—+1.5
SG: APP—+1.6
SG: TTG—+4.5
SG: ATG—+1.4
SG: PUTT—+6.9
- SG: Tee to Green is again a metric to emphasize, although you can look to approaches here more than off-the-tee play. Three of the last four seasons have seen winners gain over 2.5 strokes on approach alone.
- From a proximity perspective, Tom Hoge in 2022 gained the most strokes against the field from the 100-125 yard range and that is also the most popular basket for approaches at this event (going off data from past iterations).
- Three of the past six winners at Pebble Beach have lost strokes off the tee, so dominant off-the-tee play is simply not needed, although you don’t want your player missing every fairway either — both Berger (2021) and Hoge (2022) gained over 1.0 strokes OTT.
- The worse the weather is, the more around the green play tends to matter — five of the top-six finishers gained over +1.0 strokes around the green in 2021. 2023 winner Justin Rose was sixth in SG: ATG for the week (2.6)
- The Poa greens will flummox a lot of the field and should play fast this year.
- Good poa-putting stats are always useful as players tend to three-putt more than average at Pebble Beach, while winners also tend to gain a lot of strokes on the greens (nearly as much as on approach)
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Patrick Cantlay +1800 and $9,400
Comparables:
– Ludvig Aberg +1800 and $9,900
– Hideki Matsuyama +2200 and $9,600
Tom Kim +5500 and $7,800
Comparables:
– Shane Lowry +5500 and $8,000
– Sepp Straka +5500 and $8,000
– Russell Henley +5500 and $7,900
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Jason Day ($8,900; best finishes: T4-2020, T2-2018): Day has been a perennial contender at this event throughout his career. The Aussie has always putted well on Poa and has landed five top-five finishes at Pebble Beach over the last decade. He comes in playing well and finished T6 at this event last season.
2. Jordan Spieth ($7,900; best finishes: win-2017, 2nd-2022): Spieth has played this event nine years in a row, and has never missed the cut (when it had one). He holds a win and four top-10 finishes at Pebble Beach to his credit. He has struggled here the last two seasons (T39-T63) but his overall body of work is still impressive.
3. Nick Taylor ($7,200; best finishes: win-2020, T14-2022): Taylor won this event in 2020 in dominating fashion and has now finished top 30 at this event in five of the past six seasons. He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Total Stats at Pebble Beach (since 2019) and won the Sony Open just two starts ago.
4. Patrick Cantlay ($9,400; best finishes: T4-2022, T3-2021): Cantlay finished in the top five at this event in both 2021 and 2022. He’s tended to dominate when placed on these shorter seaside venues as he also has a great record at Harbour Town Golf Links. He finished T11 at the signature event last year and was T5 in his last start in Palm Springs.
5. Beau Hossler ($7,600; best finishes: T11- 2023, T3-2022): Hossler tends to do well on Poa. He has a solid record at Torrey Pines and at Pebble Beach where he has finished T14-T11 and T3 the last three years. He remains in solid form after a T15 last week and is certainly the kind of mid-range, longshot player we have come to expect to excel at this event.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Cantlay and Day for balanced builds
Pebble Beach tends to be a venue where experience plays every season. Both Cantlay ($9,400) and Day ($8,900 – see above) have that in spades and both men have had solid starts to the season. Building with these two means you’re likely fading Scheffler but with the Poa greens and the number one player in the world coming in off an injury layoff, this is likely the time to do in cash games and use a more balanced approach. Underneath Day and Cantlay names like McNealy ($8,100) and Nick Taylor ($7,200), two other men with great Pebble records, look like solid values to help round out lineups with.
Tournaments: Aberg Should rebound
Aberg let a lot of people down last week with his poor weekend but the Swede was battling the flu and a very unforgiving golf course in Torrey Pines. Many a pro has struggled on the South Course and it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if we saw him rebound quickly this week. His first pro win came on another quirky, smallish course with small greens in Switzerland (Crans) and he finished a solid 2nd last season at Pebble. I also like going back to Sahith Theegala ($7,700) this week in GPPs, who finished T52 last week but was fourth in birdies made. He’s still gaining strokes on approach, is top 20 in strokes gained putting (Poa) over the last 24 rounds, and finished T20 at this venue last season. Other names to consider as longshots for big fields include Gary Woodland ($6,500), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,400), and Adam Hadwin ($6,000).
Recent Form
1. Lee Hodges ($6,200, T9-T34-T10): Hodges is second in strokes gained total stats over the last six weeks. He’s gaining big on the greens right now and should be a popular sub-$6,500 play this week in GPPs.
2. SungJae Im ($9,000, T4-MC-T3): Im rebounded nicely at Torrey with a T4, after missing the cut at the Amex the week before. The South Korean has never found much success at this week’s venue and did gain big around the greens at the Farmers.
3. Keegan Bradley ($6,800, T15-T6-T15): Bradley continues to play consistent golf. The veteran has finished T15 or better in each of his last three starts and has gained off the tee and on approach at all three events as well.
4. JJ Spaun ($7,300, T15-T29-T3): Spaun continued his nice start to the season at Torrey last week with a T15. He had a near miss at the Sony in his first start and is someone who could surprise at this shorter, target-driven venue given how well he is hitting his irons.
5. Thomas Detry ($7,200, T15-T53-T5): Detry played well at this event last season and is starting to pick steam again. The Belgian was T5 in Maui and T15 last week at Torrey where he gained strokes across the board.
MY PICK: Russell Henley (7,900)
We’ve seen every different style of player win at Pebble Beach, but ultimately this is a shotmakers course with smaller greens that require precision irons and caters to the more accuracy-driven players. In short, Pebble Beach is a great setup for players like Henley, a four-time winner on the PGA TOUR who has grabbed wins at similar tight setups like Waialae and PGA National.
The American comes in off the back of a solid Hawaii swing where he landed a T10 at the Sony Open in his last start, gaining over 3.0 strokes on approach and over 2.2 strokes ATG. Henley remains a top-rated short iron player (10th in approach proximity; 13th from 125-150 yards) and has become a far better scrambler as he matures, coming into this week ranked 22nd in SG: Around the Green stats over his last 24 rounds. He struggled in the wet conditions last season but a firmer course likely suits him and should allow him to use his around-the-green ability more to his advantage.
He’s never been the best Poa putter but this is a surface many veterans have figured out eventually later in their careers and there is no reason Henley can’t be the same. He finished T16 at this venue as an Amateur back in 2010 and had a high finish of T15 as recently as 2018, so while he’s never challenged at this venue there have been solid moments along the way.
For DFS purposes, he looks like a nice value target under 8K this week and on the DraftKings Sportsbook, where he is +5500 to win and +450 to Top 10.
MY SLEEPER: Denny McCarthy ($7,000)
It’s not outlandish to think that we could see a player like Denny McCarthy win a signature event this week. Pebble Beach has produced a lot of longshot winners in past seasons and even last year’s winner, Wyndham Clark, still went off North of 50-1 in the betting odds.
McCarthy started his season well at the Sony Open, where he finished T7 but gained 4.5 strokes on approach for the week and another 5.5 strokes putting. At an event where winners tend to gain as much as they do on the greens as they do tee to green, McCarthy definitely has an advantage. He’s an elite putter who gained 6.1 strokes putting on these greens back in 2023, when he finished T4 in the old Pro-Am format, and ranks first in strokes gained putting on Poa Annua over his last 24 rounds of play.
At the very least, he looks like a great upside for GPPs this week just given his ability to go nuclear on these greens and rack up some birdie and streak points (he’s 8th in BoB% over the last 24 rounds). For betting, I like him as a longshot outright at +7000 and for the top 10 at +550.
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