Remember when Andy Reid couldn’t win the big one? Those were good times, as Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs are now one win away from….not one, not two, but three straight Lombardis after squeaking out the 32-29 victory over the Buffalo Bills.
The last time a NFL franchise won back-to-back championships was the New England Patriots in 2003 and 2004. The Denver Broncos did it in 1998 and 1999, the Dallas Cowboys in 1993 and 1994, the San Francisco 49ers in 1989 and 1990, the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1979 and 1980, then again in 1975 and 1976, the Miami Dolphins in 1973 and 1974 and the Green Bay Packers in 1967 and 1968.
No team has won three in a row.
Now the Chiefs face a familiar foe in the Philadelphia Eagles, who took revenge on the Washington Commanders, 55-23 on Sunday, five weeks after losing to the Commanders in Week 16.
Kansas City and Philadelphia met in Super Bowl LVII, with the Chiefs strutting off with the 38-35 victory. Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni were the head coaches. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts were the quarterbacks. Travis Kelce was the tight end while the Eagles had AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith.
They are all back for Part Deux.
Shane Steichen was calling the plays for Philadelphia then. It’s Kellen Moore this time around.
And we can’t forget about that Saquon Barkley guy. He’s pretty good and presents a massive challenge for the Chiefs’ defense and makes this Eagles team completely different than the one three seasons ago.
Let’s break down the numbers for this year’s matchup.
On paper, the Eagles should be the favorite. Their pass defense allowed the lowest EPA per dropback, including the regular season and playoffs. The rush defense allowed the second-lowest EPA per carry.
On offense, the passing game wasn’t the most robust, but the unit still put up the eighth-highest EPA per dropback. The rushing attack was tied for the highest EPA per carry and the 39 rushing touchdowns were the most in the league.
The Chiefs were 16th in EPA per dropback and 15th in EPA per carry on defense. Steve Spagnuolo dialed up the blitz 31.6% of the time, fourth-most, which resulted in the fifth-highest pressure rate and second-highest quarterback knockdown rate.
On offense, they were sixth in EPA per dropback and eighth in EPA per carry.
Interestingly, both teams played a similar non-conference schedule: AFC North and NFC South.
Both teams beat New Orleans, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Carolina and Pittsburgh.
Now, there are many things pointing to Philadelphia for this one. They are one of the most balanced teams in the league and have paid their dues at each floor of the NFL Game of Death pagoda. Many of the players and coaches are also familiar with Kansas City while winning three in a row has literally been unprecedented.
That said, I must admit that I thought the league had “figured” out Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense to some degree, and that they were getting extremely lucky. But I can’t deny that there are reasons why the Chiefs are able to wiggle out of defeat time and time again, mainly that Andy Reid is an amazing offensive mind and Patrick Mahomes is one of, if not the best quarterback of all time.
The ability to play a divergent number of styles, yet still be successful on offense means that they are always alive because of the ability to adjust to any adjustments. Reid eventually figures it out while Mahomes is able to execute.
On defense, Steve Spagnuolo has proven to be one of the best defensive coordinators. He also adjusts but applies pressure and forces the issue when needed.
Patrick Mahomes has proven time and time again to deliver when necessary, both with his arms and legs. He’s seen it all and been through it all. As long as there’s time on the clock and the Chiefs are within one score, Mahomes will likely deliver. And Spagnuolo will likely keep the game close for Mahomes to do his thing.
I don’t have the same confidence in Jalen Hurts. Not to say that he’s not a good quarterback, but if asked to drop back, pick apart defenses and drive for a score when all the chips are down on the table, I have doubts. Which is why I side with Mahomes and the Chiefs to make it a three-peat.
Prediction: Chiefs to win (-125)
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