The Clash of the Titans in the AFC will be the second matchup as the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills prepare to face off.
It has not always been pretty, but Kansas City continues to produce victories and is two wins away from becoming the first team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons. After going 15-2 in the regular season, they enjoyed the bye week during the opening round of the playoffs. They then took down the Houston Texans 23-14 in the Divisional Round to set themselves up for this matchup.
The path has been tougher for the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen has taken his game to new heights this season and helped lead the team to a 13-4 record in the regular season. They produced a commanding 31-7 victory over the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round before going toe-to-toe with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. A dropped two-point conversion attempt by Mark Andrews sealed Baltimore’s fate and the Bills will be looking to de-thrown the back-to-back reigning champs to get their chance at the title.
The Chiefs enter this game as 1.5-point favorites and -125 on the Moneyline. The Bills are +105 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 48.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the AFC title match.
Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
It was a mild season for Travis Kelce by his sky-high individual standards. The 10-time Pro Bowl tight end recorded a career-low in receiving yards and touchdowns at the age of 35.
However, it became clear early on in last week’s game that this was nothing more than the Chiefs preserving Kelce for the playoff run as they seek their third consecutive Super Bowl and fourth overall championship of this era. During the victory over the Texans, Kelce tallied seven receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. This now extended his playoff streak to 14 consecutive games with 70+ receiving yards through the air.
This should be expected to continue with the Bills’ defense having some points of weakness. On the season Buffalo ranked 11th in points allowed, 17th in yards conceded, 24th in passing yards allowed, 24th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 17th in net yards per pass attempt. During the legendary 2020 matchups between the Bills and Chiefs, Kelce finished with 13 receptions for 118 yards and two touchdowns. Plenty has changed since this point but the track record of Kelce being at his best when the moment is its largest is strong.
The Bills had success stopping Kelce in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different beast. Kansas City is more familiar with this beast than anyone with Patrick Mahomes and Kelce leading the charge. Expect him to play a major role in this matchup and record over 70.5 receiving yards in the process.
Khalil Shakir Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
The Buffalo Bills entered this season with a more committee-based approach to their wide receiver production after Stefon Diggs was their clear-cut top option for the past four years. Khalil Shakir has been the biggest beneficiary of Diggs’ absence and has filled the shoes of the top wide receiver in the Bills’ system.
Shakir tallied a career-high 76 receptions for 821 yards and four touchdowns during the regular season. He recorded over 58.5 receiving yards in six games in the regular season. Shakir has built off this in the playoffs logging six catches in each of the team’s victories for 61 and 67 yards. He also had a season-high eight catches in the regular season matchup with the Chiefs which resulted in 70 yards through the air.
While the Chiefs’ defense has been more impressive than we have become accustomed to be the case, they are not impenetrable. Kansas City finished the regular season ranked 18th in passing yards allowed, 12th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 14th in net yards per pass attempt.
As the season progressed it has become increasingly clear that Shakir is Josh Allen’s most trusted target and expect this to be especially evident with the playoff stakes on the line. Look for him to play a significant role in the Bills game plan and record over 58.5 receiving yards for the third straight playoff game.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (-120)
Expectations were already high, but Josh Allen has played the best football of his career this season. The MVP candidate cut down on his turnovers and has yet to turn it over in this playoff run. He has the arm talent to make any throw on the field and his massive frame makes him a unique weapon around the goal line.
Even with James Cook being tied for an NFL-best 16 rushing touchdowns this season, Allen added 12 rushing touchdowns of his own this season. This comes just one season after Allen was tied with Jalen Hurts for the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league with 15 each. Allen has carried this effort and ability into the postseason and tallied two rushing touchdowns last week against the Ravens.
Allen also found the end zone on the ground in the regular season matchup with the Chiefs and tallied three rushing touchdowns across the two games with Kansas City last year. He has six rushing touchdowns over the past five playoff games and Allen will be sure to be ready to leave it all on the field with so much on the line. Count on him to lean on his monstrous 6-foot-5 frame and fearless running style whenever the end zone is within reach and record a touchdown on the ground in this matchup.
Patrick Mahomes to Record 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+207)
Looking at the wider view of each football unit, the Chiefs offense versus the Bills defense is the biggest mismatch in this game. Kansas City has not been the dominant offensive unit we have been accustomed to during this era of football, but Patrick Mahomes still strikes fear into opposing defense at a higher rate than any other quarterback in the league. Buffalo finished the year ranked 11th in points allowed, 17th in yards conceded, 24th in passing touchdowns allowed, 24th in passing yards conceded, and 17th in net yards per pass attempts. They also allow the highest dropback success rate and sixth-most yards per passing attempt to opposing quarterbacks over the final nine regular-season games.
Kansas City has struggled to get adequate production from the running game which may only compound Buffalo’s problems. Mahomes also has had a mild statistical output this season by his standard with his 26 passing touchdowns in the regular season marking his lowest since 2019. Even still, he has thrown for three touchdowns in four games this season, including the regular season matchup with the Bills.
The three-time champion has his standard passing touchdown prop line set at 1.5 with the over favored at -174 odds on DraftKings. Instead, I like the alternate line of 3+ passing touchdowns with this being a weakness in Buffalo’s defense and Mahomes being plenty capable of taking advantage. Expect both offenses to throw their best punches and for Mahomes to do everything possible to make sure he and the Chiefs get the last laugh. The +207 odds are worth taking a chance on and look for Mahomes to throw for three touchdowns for the second time against the Bills this season and for the ninth game in his playoff career.
