When the NFL Playoffs started a couple weeks back, I’m not sure how many people would have correctly predicted this matchup in the NFC Championship Game. The Eagles were chalk. A 14-3 juggernaut that’s lost only a single game since the beginning of October. However, that one defeat did come at the hands of the Commanders, who have taken down both the Buccaneers and the Lions on their path to Super Bowl greatness.
So, is the public riding with the heavy-favorite or the awe-inspiring rookie quarterback?
Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at for this all-important tilt between two divisional foes.
Betting Splits
People are getting a little swept up in the Commanders, huh? Washington is currently seeing 60% of the moneyline bets and 59% of the spread bets, after the team’s impressive and emphatic victory over Detroit last Saturday. I can somewhat understand the action on the moneyline, as the Eagles’ -285 odds are pretty unappealing to most bettors. However, I am somewhat surprised that the Commanders are significantly more popular on the spread — though Philadelphia is getting 56% of the handle as six-point favorites, suggesting the bigger money is coming in on the home team.
The Eagles’ Divisional Round win over the Rams was far less decisive than Washington’s — and Jalen Hurts looked underwhelming and banged up — but the larger sample still suggests that Philadelphia is the far superior squad. Even the Commanders’ Week 16 victory over the Eagles comes with the asterisk of Kenny Pickett playing the majority of the snaps. Jayden Daniels has looked amazing so far in the postseason. It’s truly been one of the most noteworthy performances by a rookie QB in the playoffs. Yet, I’m not 100% confident that Washington is going to win the turnover battle 5-0 against Philadelphia, like it managed to pull-off versus Detroit.
If one thing is clear for the NFC Championship Game, the public thinks it’s going to be high-scoring, with a whopping 78% of the bets and 68% of the handle coming in on the over for the 47.5-point total. This screams recency bias. Not only did these two teams combine for 69 points in late December, but the Commanders are directly on the heels of posting 45 points in the Divisional Round. Still, that came against an injury-ravaged Lions defense, in a dome, and was heavily assisted by takeaways. The Eagles defense is elite. If Hurts isn’t 100% on the other side, this tilt could easily become a defensive struggle.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Sunday’s game:
- Saquon Barkley Anytime TD Scorer (-220)
- Saquon Barkley First TD Scorer (+340)
- Terry McLaurin Anytime TD Scorer (+130)
- Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns (+250)
- A.J. Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+155)
Saquon Barkley is such a fascinating figure when it comes to touchdowns.
As a true bell cow running back on a high-scoring team, Barkley always grades out well in terms of expected touchdowns, yet he’d also failed to find the end zone in four of his prior five games heading into last Sunday’s tilt with Los Angeles. The reason for this can be summed up in two words: Tush push. While Barkley did sit among the league leaders in red zone rushing attempts during the regular season, he saw just 37.1% of the Eagles’ carries at the goal line. Hurts is simply the ultimate vulture and he’s got 42 rushing touchdowns in the past three years to back up that claim.
So, how do you circumnavigate your QB stealing your touchdowns? You don’t give him the chance. Barkley scored twice in last weekend’s 28-22 victory over the Rams, finding pay dirt on a 62-yard run and a 78-yard run. The man rushed for over 2,000 yards during the regular season. This type of performance is well within his range of outcomes and he’s certainly capable of doing it again against the Commanders — a team that conceded the seventh-most 20+ yard runs in 2024 (14). Still, I’d be wary of -220 odds for Barkley as an anytime touchdown scorer. It just doesn’t seem like great value.
