The Chiefs host the Bills in Kansas City on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite over the Bills with an over/under set at 47.5.
Betting Splits
The Chiefs and Bills are facing off in the playoff for the fourth time in the Mahomes-Allen era. The Chiefs are 3-0 SU and ATS in those three prior meetings. Despite that, the public is backing the Bills on Sunday. They are getting 64% of the moneyline bets and 63% of the spread bets. On the spread, they are also getting 67% of the handle, but they are only getting 57% of the handle on the moneyline. So, overall, the public is backing Buffalo to cover the 1.5-point spread and win the game outright. However, some bigger bettors are backing the Chiefs on the moneyline.
If you are betting on the game, it does make sense to bet the moneyline if you are backing the Chiefs and the spread if you are betting on the Bills. If you are a Chiefs backer, you don’t want to worry about the scenario where the Chiefs win by only one point and you lose your spread bet. Similarly, you don’t want the Bills to somehow lose by only one point after betting the Bills on the moneyline. So while the public is backing Buffalo in both arenas, that would be the smartest way to approach the betting market for this game.
When it comes to total, the public is overwhelmingly on the over. The public is often on the over, but they are especially strong to that side in this game, with 72% of bets on the side of points. Typically there is some resistance from bigger and sharper bettors that want to take the under, but in this case, there isn’t too much big action on the other side. 69% of the handle is on the over which is a marginal three percentage point difference from the ticket handle. That means some bigger bettors have come in on the under but not enough to make a real impact on the splits. With these two amazing quarterbacks going back and forth, not many people are willing to bet on the under in this game.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the five most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for the Chiefs vs. Bills matchup:
- Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-115)
- Josh Allen First TD Scorer (+600)
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (+125)
- Kareem Hunt o8.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
- James Cook Anytime TD Scorer (+125)
It’s no surprise that Josh Allen is the most bet-on player to score a touchdown in this game. Allen is one of the most popular players in the league and he has been great in the postseason so far. Allen ran for two touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the Ravens, after running for 12 touchdowns in the regular season. That was the second-most rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks, behind only Jalen Hurts. Allen has rushed for a touchdown in three of his five career games against the Chiefs, including two months ago in their regular season matchup. Allen also has six rushing touchdowns in his past five playoff games, so he has shown over the last several seasons that he is willing to put his body on the line and fight his way to the end zone. That is why the second-most popular player prop bet for this game is for Allen to score the first touchdown. Bettors will be rooting hard for Allen to rush for a touchdown in this game.
The next-most popular prop is also not a surprise. Travis Kelce is another very popular player off the field who also has incredible playoff success. Kelce only scored three touchdowns the entire regular season, which was pretty shocking. However, Kelce immediately stepped up to the plate and scored a touchdown in the Divisional Round against the Texans. Kelce has been unbelievable in the postseason throughout his career. In his 23 playoff games, he has scored 20 touchdowns. More importantly, that form has been very consistent, as Kelce has 11 touchdowns in his past 11 playoff contests. Mahomes will certainly be looking for Kelce in this game and it wouldn’t be wise to bet against him scoring in this game.
A running back from each team rounds out this list. Kareem Hunt over 8.5 rushing attempts is the next-most popular bet in this game. This is a relatively obscure prop to be getting this much love, but the public is feeling the sentiment that Hunt is the preferred back over Pacheco. Hunt joined the Chiefs a few games into the season after Pacheco’s long-term injury in Week 2. Since Pacheco returned, he has not been able to get up to speed and it seems like Hunt could carry the load for the Chiefs in the postseason. Against the Texans, Hunt had eight carries compared to Pacheco’s five. Hunt was much more productive, averaging 5.5 yards per carry compared to Pacheco’s 3.6. Hunt is also the go-to guy in the red zone, getting a rushing touchdown against the Texans. If Hunt’s rushing productivity increases, he should clear that number.
James Cook to score a touchdown is the last bet on the list. Josh Allen is the preferred player by bettors, but it was Cook who tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns in the regular season. Cook scored 18 total touchdowns in the regular season and added another one in the Wild Card round against Denver. However, Cook failed to score in the Divisional Round with Josh Allen and Ray Davis combining for the Bills’ three rushing touchdowns. Allen takes a lot of the carries close to the end zone and the Bills are willing to use Cook, Davis or Ty Johnson. That makes it a bit scary to back any of these players to score a touchdown, but Cook proved his productivity in the regular season so he has a real shot to get in the end zone against the Chiefs.
