It is the moment we have all been waiting for––the annual Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen postseason duel. The Bills will head into Arrowhead as 1.5-point underdogs with the game total set at O/U 48.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Allen was the only quarterback to best Mahomes in the regular season this season but holds an 0-3 all-time postseason record against him. No matter who wins, it will be another classic filled with magical quarterback play and elite play-calling.
If you’re reading this, that means you’re a first-touchdown scorer sicko like myself. Here are the top five players in terms of odds to be the first touchdown scorer:
- Josh Allen (+600)
- Travis Kelce (+850)
- James Cook (+900)
- Kareem Hunt (+1100)
- Isiah Pacheco (+1100)
Please read below for my top choice in Chiefs vs. Bills––the unofficial Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Noah Gray First TD Scorer (+2500)
The Bills have allowed opening-drive touchdowns in back-to-back playoff games and I’m willing to bet that streak won’t end with the Chiefs playing at home. In fact, the Bills defense plays so poorly against the Chiefs that they have forced them to punt just five times in the last three postseason matchups. As a Bills fan, that was depressing to type out.
Buffalo will be without its starting safety, Taylor Rapp, sliding rookie Cole Bishop into the starting lineup. Bishop is a liability in coverage and Noah Gray will likely be his assignment with the Bills’ linebackers focused on Travis Kelce. Per Next Gen Stats, the Utah product has allowed a 10.6 target EPA and 1.51 EPA/target when covering opposing tight ends. Last week in the Divisional Round vs. the Ravens, both Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews picked up multiple chunk plays.
Believe it or not, Gray ranks second on the Chiefs in end zone targets with five––one ahead of Travis Kelce. He has turned those targets into four receptions for four touchdowns. Kansas City has struggled in the red zone this season but Buffalo struggles to limit tight ends in the red zone, allowing the seventh-highest completion percentage over expected when covering them, per Next Gen Stats. The Bills defense also ranks second in EPA/play against the run in the red zone, so I am avoiding the Kareem Hunt or Isiah Pacheco headache of a decision.
This is 25/1 odds for a reason. Gray has scored the first touchdown just once and has garnered just 49 total targets this season. He did score in Week 11 against the Bills and all focus will be on Kelce.
