The Chiefs face the Bills in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. Here are some Patrick Mahomes prop bets to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets
Here are Patrick Mahomes’ current prop bet odds at DraftKings Sportsbook: o/u 251.5 passing yards, o/u 1.5 passing touchdowns, and o/u 25.5 rushing yards. Mahomes is +370 to score a touchdown, +3500 to score 2+ touchdowns, and +1900 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen go to battle for the fourth time in their playoff careers on Sunday. Mahomes is 3-0 in those matchups and is looking to make it 4-0 with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The Chiefs secured the No. 1 seed so they get to host the Bills, just like in the three previous postseason matchups between these teams. These franchises did face each other in Buffalo during the regular season and the Bills beat the Chiefs. It was a close contest but Josh Allen broke a run late in the fourth quarter to make it a two-score game. So, in some ways, the Chiefs are looking for their own revenge as that was the only game that they lost this season with Mahomes on the field.
The Bills are a really tough matchup for anybody, but by most metrics, their defense is very solid but not quite elite. The Chiefs finished the regular season 10th in offensive EPA/dropback while the Bills’ defense finished 20th in defensive EPA/dropback. So, in the passing game, the Chiefs actually have a decent advantage. The Chiefs should struggle to run the ball which does put more pressure on Mahomes’ shoulders, but pressure is not something that has really affected Mahomes in his career. The Bills should try to control the clock on the ground themselves and limit the amount of total possessions, which will require Mahomes to be precise and sharp when the Chiefs have the football. Instead of running the ball, the Chiefs will use the short to intermediate passing game to stay ahead of the chains and pick up first downs. That should lead to a high-efficiency game for Mahomes.
My favorite prop bet for this game is for Mahomes to throw under 0.5 interceptions. The quarterback is almost flawless in his postseason career. Since the start of the 2023 postseason, Mahomes has only thrown one postseason interception. That is eight playoff games with only one interception, with the single pick coming in last season’s Super Bowl. In addition to his clean postseason record, Mahomes ended the regular season on a great run of protecting the ball. Including last week’s win over the Texans, Mahomes has gone seven straight games without an interception. The Chiefs should be relatively conservative on offense and despite these two great quarterbacks facing off, this game could be a bit of a field position battle as both teams try to avoid making that key mistake that could cost them the game. Mahomes should keep up his clean run and make it eight straight games without an interception.
