The Conference Championship matchups will be kicked off in the NFC battle between a pair of NFC East Rivals.
The Philadelphia Eagles will host this matchup and are searching to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in the past three seasons. They went 14-3 in the regular season and have taken down the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams across the opening two weeks of the playoffs. The biggest concern will be what level of health Jalen Hurts is at after his knee was rolled up on in last week’s victory over the Rams. You won’t get anything out of Hurts outside of the scripted answers, but it should be noted he started the week listed as a limited participant in practice. His dual-threat ability is a huge part of his game and it certainly would be a huge storyline if he is limited. Even still Saquon Barkley enters playing his best football and the Eagles’ defense has been impressive to close the year.
Washington enters as the biggest surprise remaining in the playoffs. They went 12-5 in the regular season and earned a Wild Card seed and have proven the regular season was no fluke. Jayden Daniels continues to add to one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NFL history and shows why no moment is too large for him. Washington went down to Tampa Bay to produce the opening week playoff victory before producing a huge upset over the top-seeded Detroit Lions last week as they went blow-for-blow with their high-powered offense. They now will travel to Philadelphia for the second time this season and the third matchup overall with these NFC East rivals having split the first two matchups.
The Eagles enter this game as six-point favorites and -285 on the Moneyline. The Commanders are +230 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 47.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the NFC Conference Championship matchup.
Jalen Hurts Over 190.5 Passing Yards (-113)
All eyes will be on the mobility of Jalen Hurts through the opening drive of this matchup. While the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback is a better pure passer than he sometimes gets credit, there is no doubt that his dual-threat abilities are a huge part of what makes him special. The read option and quarterback draw plays are a significant part of the Eagles’ playbook and the game plan will need to be altered notably if Hurts isn’t a threat with his legs.
On top of this, expect the Commanders’ number one priority to be stopping Saquon Barkley. The star running back ran for 205 rushing yards last week against the Rams including taking two touchdowns for 60+ yards. Washington ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and will need to stack the box and throw extra bodies at Barkley if they are to have a chance. With so much attention set to be on Barkley at the line of scrimmage, expect some opportunities for Hurts to pick the Commanders apart through the air to become available.
Hurts has thrown for mild outputs of 128 and 131 passing yards through the opening two playoff games, but Barkley’s 355 yards from scrimmage are more of a reason for this than the quarterback’s struggles. Hurts averaged 193.5 passing yards per game during the regular season and threw for over 190.5 passing yards in eight of the 15 games he played this year. This includes throwing for 221 yards in the regular season matchup against the Commanders Hurts finished. He suffered a concussion in the first quarter of the Eagles’ loss to Washington. Expect the Commanders to force Hurts to beat them with his arm and for the Eagles quarterback to throw for over 190.5 passing yards in the process.
Saquon Barkley Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The 2,005 rushing yards in the regular season and 324 rushing yards already produced in the postseason steal the spotlight, but Saquon Barkley also is an excellent pass-catcher at the running back position. Barkley has tallied as many as 91 receptions over a season in his career and logged 33 receptions for 278 yards and a pair of receiving touchdowns in his opening season with the Eagles.
While he was utilized much more in the passing game at the start of the season, expect nothing to be off-limits in the playbook in this matchup. He tallied two receptions for just four yards in the victory over the Packers but pulled in four catches for 27 yards last week against the Rams. Leaning on the screen game is another way to ease the pressure on Jalen Hurts’ knee and will be especially effective if the Commanders stack the box as much as anticipated and allow Barkley to leak out of the backfield.
The Commanders brought extra pass rushers at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season and this rate will likely only increase with Barkley at the top of their scouting report. While Barkley did not record a catch in the regular season matchup that Hurts left due to his concussion, he recorded 52 receiving yards in the first matchup. Barkley averaged 17.4 receiving yards per game during the regular season and recorded over 13.5 receiving yards in seven games.
Expect Barkley’s usage in the passing game to be a key counter the Eagles lean on if the Commanders overcorrect to stop the running game. Count on him receiving a few opportunities as a pass catcher and to record over 13.5 receiving yards as he attempts to solidify his first Super Bowl opportunity.
Jayden Daniels Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-111)
The entire outlook for the Washington Commanders franchise drastically changed when they selected Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in this year’s draft. The LSU product has been everything the organization could have hoped for and more. Daniels has been the driving force of the team’s success and is why the Commanders are playing in the Conference Championship for the first time since 1991.
While this season should be viewed as a massive success for Washington regardless of the outcome, look for them to lean on what got them here. Daniels completed 69.0% of his passes this season for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game on the season overall but was given more freedom with his arm as the season progressed. Daniels recorded over 32.5 pass attempts in seven games this season including one of the two playoff games thus far.
While the Commanders have had success operating with a lead for the majority of their playoff run thus far, this will be difficult to come by against the toughest defense he has faced during this stretch. Expect the Eagles to be content taking a lead and running out the clock while the Commanders look to build off their high-flying 45-point offensive performance they produced last week. Whether it is an effort to control the tempo and create some big plays or while the Commanders are playing from behind, expect the fate of the Commanders to fall on the shoulders of Jayden Daniels. The rookie attempted over 32.5 pass attempts in the opening playoff matchup and both quarterbacks the Eagles have faced in the postseason have attempted at least 33 throws. Matt Stafford threw the ball 44 times last week in the loss despite the snowy conditions. Count on the Commanders to be willing to let Daniels decide their fate and for the rookie to attempt at least 33 pass attempts in this NFC East matchup.
Saquon Barkley 150+ Rushing Yards (+176 Odds)
Oddsmakers have been unable to keep pace with Saquon Barkley’s production as he continues to add to his historic season. His rushing prop was initially set at 130.5 for this matchup which is the highest individual rushing prop ever recorded on DraftKings Sportsbook. This number has dropped to 128.5 as the week progressed which is still an insanely high total and for good reason.
Barkley became just the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season all while resting the final week of the year rather than chasing the all-time rushing record. The Penn State product is showing no signs of slowing down rushing for 119 yards in the opening playoff matchup and 205 yards on the ground last week.
The most concerning part of this matchup from the Commanders’ perspective should be that the Eagles’ strength, which is running the football, correlates to their biggest weakness. Washington finished the season ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed and 28th in net yards per rush attempt. They were only able to hold opponents below 100 rushing yards in four of the 19 games this season across the regular season and playoffs. While Washington got the win, the Lions ran for 201 yards and three touchdowns against them just last week. Barkley has produced rushing totals of 150 and 146 with four combined touchdowns across his two regular-season matchups with Washington.
This is a sky-high rushing total but there comes a point in which there is no clear adjustment to match the level of talent that Barkley possesses. The star running back has done an excellent job of finding a few opportunities for long runs that change the game all season long. 150 rushing yards is a big swing but based on the level he is playing at this being a weakness of the Commanders it is worth taking a chance on the +176 odds.
