All of the fixtures in Matchweek 23 of the Premier League are the reverse of those that opened the season on August 17, which provides Premier League fans with a perfect opportunity to reflect on how far things have come since the first game of the season. That week, Liverpool opened the Arne Slot era with a 2-0 win over Ipswich Town, and a ho-hum 1-1 draw between Nottingham Forest and AFC Bournemouth belied how spectacular those two teams would turn out to be.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of bets available every week for players looking to get it on the Premier League action. Here are my top betting picks for Matchweek 23 in England’s top flight.
First, let’s take a look at the full list of fixtures for Matchweek 23:
Nottingham Forest at AFC Bournemouth, 10 a.m. EST, January 25
Everton at Brighton & Hove Albion, 10 a.m. EST, January 25
Ipswich Town at Liverpool, 10 a.m. EST, January 25
Newcastle United at Southampton, 10 a.m. EST, January 25
Arsenal at Wolves, 10 a.m. EST, January 25
Chelsea at Manchester City, 12:30 p.m. EST, January 25
Brentford at Crystal Palace, 9 a.m. EST, January 26
Leicester City at Tottenham Hotspur, 9 a.m. EST, January 26
West Ham United at Aston Villa, 11:30 a.m. EST, January 26
Manchester United at Fulham, 2 p.m. EST, January 26
Kaoru Mitoma Anytime Goalscorer (+260)
I haven’t written at all about Brighton this season, but the Seagulls have grabbed three draws and two wins from their past five games, sitting eighth in the form table and ninth in the table overall. Brighton’s opposition hasn’t been very good — a 2-0 win over 18th-place Ipswich Town and a 3-1 win over 13th-place Manchester United isn’t that impressive — but the Seagulls have done what they’ve needed to do, beating up on bad opposition. Draws against eighth-place Aston Villa and second-place Arsenal in Matchweeks 19 and 20 further my confidence in the team.
Brighton has a relatively balanced attack, with Mitoma scoring five goals, Joao Pedro scoring five, and Danny Welbeck leading the team with six. But the Japanese star is in the finest form of the three, having found the back of the net in each of his past two games, and he’s averaging nearly as many goals per 90 minutes as he did in his breakout 2022-23 campaign, when he contributed seven goals and five assists, helping the Seagulls to sixth in the Premier League.
Meanwhile, Everton is a complete mess and would be in a relegation battle if not for how bad Southampton, Leicester City, and Ipswich Town have been this season. As it stands, the Toffees are just four points clear of the relegation zone, and, while they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest goals in the Premier League overall, they allowed three to Brighton during Matchweek 1 on August 17, including one to Mitoma.
Liverpool O3.5 Goals (+110)
It’s hard to understate just how dominant Liverpool has been in the Premier League this season on its way to a likely 20th top flight title. The Reds have scored the most goals in the league and given up the fewest and hold a six-point lead over Arsenal and Nottingham Forest with a game in hand. Its expected goal difference is 13.7 points better than any other team, and Mohamed Salah is both the league’s top scorer and top assister. While Liverpool has actually been slightly better away from Anfield, it’s still averaging two goals per game at its home park, tied for the fourth-most in the league.
It’s equally hard to understate how poor Ipswich Town has been, even though the Tractor Boys are equal on points with Wolves and have the best shot of avoiding relegation of any of the newly-promoted sides. Ipswich has conceded 43 goals this season, tied for the fourth-most in the league, and it’s actually been lucky to even give up that few, given that it’s allowed the second-most expected goals in the league. The 2-0 shock win over Chelsea in Matchweek 19 notwithstanding, Ipswich hasn’t looked very good in recent weeks and just conceded six to Manchester City, who have been far less clinical than Liverpool. The Tractor Boys will have a respite in Matchweek 24 against Southampton, but this week, Liverpool should easily hammer at least four past Arijanet Muric.
Manchester City Moneyline (+110)
I’ll admit that I’m a Chelsea supporter, so this one hurts to write, but the Blues’ form recently hasn’t been great. A draw to Bournemouth in Matchweek 21 is excusable, but losses to Fulham and Ipswich Town aren’t, and a 0-0 draw to Everton is pretty bad as well. Chelsea did what it needed to do in a 3-1 win over Wolves in Matchweek 22 — even if it was nervier than it needed to be — but overall, the Blues sit ninth-to-last in the form table and Manchester City sits fifth. Chelsea was in a genuine title fight a month ago, and now it sits 10 points behind Liverpool.
Meanwhile, after its absolute low point, a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa on December 21 that was its sixth Premier League defeat in eight matches, Manchester City has been pretty good. An 8-0 FA Cup win over fourth-tier side Salford City doesn’t tell us much, but the 6-0 drubbing of the Tractor Boys was very impressive and the 4-1 win over West Ham in Matchweek 20 was equally impressive. Pep Guardiola’s men aren’t anywhere near the title fight, but they could very easily pip the Blues to the top four. 2023-24 Premier League Player of the Season Phil Foden is starting to find his form, with five goals in his last three league matches, which should terrify every other English team.
Tottenham and Leicester City to Draw (+425)
Most of the talk surrounding the Big Six clubs has been on the struggles of Manchester City and Manchester United, but the lowest of the bunch is actually Tottenham, which sits 15th in the table, just eight points clear of the relegation zone and two points worse than United. Spurs are still in the top eight of the Europa League after the first seven matchweeks and have a 1-0 lead in the Carabao Cup semifinals against Liverpool, but in the league, they’re in the third-worst form, having picked up just one point from their last six matches.
To be fair, they’ve played some difficult opponents recently, losing to Liverpool, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, and Arsenal in the past six Matchweeks. But Tottenham also lost to Everton, drew with Wolves, and needed extra time — and substitute appearances from Son Heung-min, Dejan Kulusevski, and Dominic Solanke — just to beat fifth-tier Tamworth in the FA Cup. By expected goals, they’ve been outplayed in six of their last seven matches in the Premier League and Europa League.
Leicester City is a worse team, having lost seven straight Premier League matches and scoring two combined goals across that span. But Spurs have a tendency to play down to the level of their opponents, having gifted Ipswich Town their first Premier League road victory in Matchweek 11 and drew with Wolves despite outplaying them. The Foxes played Tottenham to a draw in Matchweek 1, and it could easily happen again on Sunday.
Amad Diallo 1+ Shots on Target (-135)
Manchester United almost had an embarrassing loss to Southampton in Matchweek 21, falling behind 1-0 until the 82nd minute, when young striker Amad Diallo roared back with a hat trick in just 12 minutes to seal a dramatic 3-1 victory. The 22-year-old Ivorian has recorded six goals and six assists in 20 top-flight games this season and has shown a knack for big moments.
He has started each of the last five games, and somehow, every one of his shots on target has found the back of the net. Overall, he’s averaged a career-high shots per 90 minutes, including 0.83 per 90 that find the target. He has recorded a shot on target in eight of his last 12 games across all competitions, scoring five goals in that span.
Meanwhile, Fulham is a bang-average Premier League team in every meaning of the word. The Cottagers sit 10th in the table and are tied for 10th in goals conceded, although they have suffered from worse-than-expected goalkeeper play. Despite the world-class play of American left back Antonee Robinson, Fulham can still be beaten at the back, having conceded at least two goals in three of their last four Premier League competitions.
