The first event on PFL’s 2025 schedule is here! Usman Nurmagomedov defends his Bellator Lightweight Championship against the pride of Ireland “Big News” Paul Hughes. Nurmagomedov is the third member of his family to compete in a championship bout in the last two weeks.
This event features 11 fights, including five on the Main Card, starting at 11:00 p.m. ET on MAX and DAZN. Check out my two best bets below for the PFL Road to Dubai Champions Series: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes. Check out my full preview for the event right here.
Usman Nurmagomedov to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+225)
Usman Nurmagomedov is 18-0 with 14 finishes. Although he is fighting an elite Irish prospect, Hughes, Nurmagomedov has a wide gap in experience. Hughes is 2-0 with PFL and recently beat former Bellator champion AJ McKee in October 2024. On paper, Nurmagomedov has significant advantages as he has a two-inch edge in reach (72″ vs. 70″) and height (5’11” vs. 5’9″).
Nurmagomedov, is Umar’s younger brother. He was defeated last weekend against UFC Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. He is a big -575 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Hughes is a +425 underdog. After coach Khabib went 1-1 at UFC 311 last week, he will be extra motivated to add another victory to the team.
Nathan Kelly Moneyline (+195)
Nathan Kelly is facing Akhmed Magomedov in a three-round featherweight bout. This is the second Dagestan vs. Ireland matchup on the card. Kelly has been perfect since competing in PFL and Bellator. He has won his last 11 fights and hasn’t lost since his second professional fight in 2018. Kelly has finished his previous three opponents and six of his last seven.
Magomedov is 10-1, coming off his first career loss against Henry Corrales in February 2023. Even though he has been inactive lately, Magomedov is still a -238 favorite, while Kelly is +195. Both fighters are 5’8″ and have a 68″ standing reach. With Magomedov’s inactivity, it is a great spot to back Kelly, the more versatile fighter. Kelly has legit power on the feet and can finish anyone on the ground.
