Championship Sunday is here, and we have a couple of terrific matchups with trips to the Super Bowl on the line. Let’s breakdown some betting angles below.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
I don’t care if Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop touched 130.5 yards during the week, marking the highest number DraftKings Sportsbook has ever posted, he’s in about as strong a spot as possible on Sunday against Washington. The Commanders entered the postseason with the 30th-ranked rush defense in terms of yards per game, and despite a couple of remarkable wins, they haven’t really shown improvement.
Jahmyr Gibbs was able to rip off over 100 rushing yards on just 14 carries last week in a losing effort, and the Lions went for over 200 rushing yards as a team. Now Washington will be tasked with an elite rushing attack in Philly, headlined by Barkley. Saquon ripped off another 205 rushing yards in the win over the Rams last week, which was his eighth time going over 130 on the ground this season. Of course, both regular season matchups against the Commanders are on that list, finishing with stat lines of 26-146-2 and 29-150-2 as a runner.
The second of the two was maybe even more impressive, as it came in the game Jalen Hurts was injured in the first quarter, and the box was able to load up against Kenny Pickett. With Hurts hobbled again, and a trip to New Orleans on the line, you can expect the Eagles to be extremely aggressive feeding Barkley the ball against a defense that he’s owned.
I’m even more bullish on Saquon ripping off a long run in this game, which will be my largest play. He has long runs of 68 and 39 yards in the two games against Washington this season, which were just two of nine games he topped the number. Last week, Gibbs had a handful of carries for double-digit yardage, with a long of 33 yards, not to mention, Jameson Williams ran in a 61-yard touchdown.
Outside of Barkley props, I do think the magic runs out here for Washington in what should be a very difficult road game. I may look to get the Eagles into a moneyline parlay or play them on the HT/FT Double Result before this one kicks off.
The Play: Saquon Barkley OVER 125.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – 1-unit
The Play: Saquon Barkley OVER 23.5 Longest Rush (-115) – 2-units
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
I know everyone seems to be rooting for and/or betting on the Bills this weekend, but it’s Kansas City for me. The Bills got the best of the Chiefs in the regular season in Buffalo, and it was due to rare mistakes by Mahomes, who threw a pair of interceptions. A big part of this handicap is that Mahomes will play mistake-free football on Sunday night. But another big piece is trusting the Chiefs to make plays on defense.
The Chiefs boast a top-three scoring defense this season, allowing just 18.1 points at home. That number is just slightly improved from their road numbers, overall playing pretty consistently. While the Bills do rank top-10 in points allowed, this is where home field advantage might come into play. Buffalo ranks just above the bottom-third of the league in scoring defense on the road, giving up over 25 point per.
The Bills have a slightly above average run defense, but if Mahomes can make plays through the air, that could ultimately be the difference in this one. Buffalo’s pass defense can be had, as only Tampa Bay allowed more passing yards in road games this season. The bottom line is that I don’t feel like I’m betting Mahomes over Josh Allen in this one, I feel like I’m backing Kansas City’s defense at home over Buffalo’s defense on the road. And hey, if we need Mahomes to make a play for us in the end, then I still like where we’re at.
The Play: Chiefs ML (-125) – 3-units
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
