Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time, with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can gain. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Grizzlies star Ja Morant to have a 45% chance to play today. Morant reportedly wasn’t in attendance at shootaround with an illness, typically a sign of a player being less than likely to play in a given day. With a favorable matchup versus New Orleans and a lofty 127.5 implied points for Memphis, Morant’s availability will have a major impact on how his teammates perform in daily fantasy and betting tonight.
Assuming Morant’s also-Questionable teammate Santi Aldama plays, Morant projects well, courtesy of Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections. Morant averages 1.33 DraftKings Points this year, and tonight he’d project for 22.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 8.1 assists.
If Morant sits out, his 31.6% usage rate and 39.2% assist rate would open up a lot of opportunities. In a matchup versus a Pelicans team with the fourth-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league at 117.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, that goes even further. Here’s how the Grizzlies would project with Morant out:
- Jaren Jackson projects for 25.2 points, 6 rebounds and 2.9 assists (22.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists if Morant is in)
- Luke Kennard projects for 12 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.6 assists (9.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists if Morant is in
- Desmond Bane projects for 22 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.9 assists (19 points, 6 rebounds, and 5.9 assists if Morant is in)
- Zach Edey projects for 8.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 0.9 assists (6.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 0.8 assists if Morant is in)
- Jaylen Wells projects for 13.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists (10.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists if Morant is in)
If Morant is officially ruled out, Unabated’s prop bet simulation tools would also expect solid Expected Value on the DraftKings Sportsbooks markets for Jaylen Wells (9% EV on over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists) and Desmond Bane (7.4% EV on over 32.5 PRAs). In a three-game NBA slate with a hilariously large amount of Q-tags, the Morant news seems like the most important of the evening for bettors and DFS players.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
