The Washington Commanders have been the biggest surprise of the NFL playoffs to this point, and they’ll look to keep their Cinderella run alive this week as they head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. While Jayden Daniels ($7,000) has been the star, the team has used a rotation in the backfield with Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,600) and Austin Ekeler ($5,300) sharing time. The two options have similar salaries in DFS contests like the NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st, TD Throne Eligible], but which one works best for your lineup? Let’s take a look:
Brian Robinson Jr.’s upside
Robinson has gotten most of the work throughout this season for the Commanders, leading the backfield with a 44% snap share compared to Ekeler’s 36%. Robinson averaged 13.3 carries per game while Ekeler has managed just 6.5 carries per contest.
Looking at the most recent games, Robinson also has the advantage with ten carries against the Bucs and 15 against the Lions, compared to just eight carries and six carries in those two games for Ekeler. Robinson had a huge fantasy output against Detroit as well since he scored two touchdowns and finished with 19.7 fantasy points.
While he isn’t as well-known as a receiving option as Ekeler (more on that below), Robinson did have four catches against the Bucs for 22 yards and finished with 7.8 DraftKings points in that Wild Card Round win.
Robinson has also gotten four opportunities in the red zone each of the last two weeks and is definitely the team’s short-yardage option by the goal line. Robinson definitely has a good ceiling, but he is typically fairly touchdown-dependent. He has ten touchdowns in his 16 games, but doesn’t normally hit double-digit fantasy points without the benefit of getting into the end zone.
Austin Ekeler’s important role
Ekeler has served as the team’s third-down and receiving back most of the season when healthy. He missed the month of December with a concussion but returned for the regular season finale and the team’s two playoff games. Against the Bucs, he played 47% of snaps, just three fewer than Robinson.
Last week against Detroit, Ekeler played 37% of snaps, but he had a better fantasy output with 12.8 fantasy points. As usual, most of his production came as a receiver out of the backfield. He hauled in all four of his targets for 41 yards and added 47 yards on six carries.
Ekeler has just four touchdowns on the season, but he reached double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 14 contests since he gets so many points for his receptions. In his first game against the Eagles this season, he showed how high his ceiling can be by catching eight passes for 89 yards and finishing with 17.6 fantasy points.
The matchup
The Eagles have been very strong against running backs this season, allowing just six running back touchdowns in 19 games. They are only allowing 81.6 rushing yards per game to the position, although they have been a little more vulnerable to receiving backs, giving up 4.2 catches per game to the position, although they have yet to allow a running back receiving touchdown.
In Week 16, the Eagles held Robinson to just 24 yards on 10 carries while Ekeler was hurt, and they don’t usually leave traditional backs much room to operate.
The verdict
Which running back makes more sense from a DFS perspective is largely reliant on game script. If you think the Commanders play from ahead and go run-heavy, Robinson is your guy, and he brings good touchdown-dependent upside despite the tough matchup. However, if you think the Eagles get a multi-score lead, the Commanders could lean more heavily into passing situations and formations, opening up playing time and opportunities for Ekeler.
Of the two, Ekeler is a lower-risk since he can be involved as a receiver and has shown he can be a strong check-down option when called upon. While he hasn’t scored as many touchdowns as Robinson, his consistent work in the passing game makes him the better play this week, especially since he’s a little cheaper than Robinson as well.
