Queue the obligatory: And then there were four. And, therein, two are familiar with the Conference Championship stage as a stepping stone: both the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs are looking to reach the Super Bowl for at least the second time in the last three years. The Chiefs, of course, have famously won the last two, and are seeking the three-peat. Josh Allen and the Bills and Jayden Daniels with his Commanders might have something to say about these veteran (and betting-favorite) squads; both inexplicably-talented quarterbacks—one a rookie, the other a king yet still without his crown—will look to win their first Conference Championship games on Sunday. And I’m here to hit you with some game predictions, game previews, prop bets, and best bets for the entire weekend. Consider this a walkthrough guide—a NFL Conference Championship best bet cheat sheet, if you will—to all betting markets available for the Chiefs vs. Bills game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
We’re headed into a two-game slate on Sunday after the Divisional Round’s two-game Sunday both went the way of the books, according to my colleague and DK Sportsbook insider Julian Edlow (@julianedlow):
From behind the counter at @DKSportsbook:
— Julian Edlow (@julianedlow) January 19, 2025
“From both a game and futures perspective, the book is rooting for PHI & BUF today” pic.twitter.com/WOwJpM3YAW
Granted, the public feasted two games in a row on Ohio State’s spread, and had plenty of futures placed on the Buckeyes that also cashed when OSU hoisted the CFB National Championship trophy. These are simply all considerations re. sportsbook markets for which I’m accounting when headed into placing my NFL wagers this weekend.
To that end, I’m going to use this article as a living document from now until Sunday. I’ll be noting which bets I add to this article on my handle @dansby_edits as I do so.
I’ll also be placing all of these bets in the DraftKings Network Betting Group, and will include tail links at the end of every analysis.
Conference Championship Best Bets
The ultra-conservative play: 13-point teaser on BUF +1.5/u47.5 & WAS +6/u47.5 (BUF +14.5/u60.5/WAS +19/u60.5 for -140)
For the casual bettor, here. Welcome to the risky-but-somehow-cushy world of big-point teasers.
Let’s start here: the odds for this bet are -140, which is pretty egregious juice for, essentially, a four-leg parlay. Some might see this as a sucker bet. But this is one for the folks who’d like to slap a unit or two on something safe that covers all of Sunday. A kick-your-feet-up-and-cross-your-fingers kind of wager.
Quickly, before we get into my analysis, here’s an example of what your slip might look like as you cobble this teaser together.
I like to account for safe bettors. Folks who won a fifty-spot on Ohio State, have it bloating their purses on DK, but who’d like to safely roll it into potentially more earnings to set up a nice stake for the March Madness that awaits. Or who just want to experience a little thrill around friends, among some good eats, with some marquee sports in the background.
Here’s a breakdown as to why this is the way I’d have my casual bettors who want full-slate AFC/NFC Championship action look.
Analysis on Commanders +19/u60.5
The Philadelphia Eagles don’t really look for opportunities to blow anybody out. Call their 28-22 home victory over the Los Angeles Rams whatever you want (I call it fifty total points), but I saw a lot of soft tackling and weather-related explosive plays from both teams. Snow games are either sloppy shootouts or defensive slogs, and that one smacked more of the former. Having said that, other than Barkley and the offensive line (which I think the Commanders will defend better than the Rams did), the Eagles offense looked entirely stoppable. Beatable, certainly.
Commanders Moneyline is both the public’s early lean (55% of handle and 60% of bets) whereas the spread’s handle is just about even, with the percentage of bets leaning heavily toward Washington (58%). And almost all the public is backing the o47.5.
This game could very likely go over 48 total points. But it will be cold in Philadelphia, and, though Washington’s offensive motor seemingly has no downgear, I have trouble believing this game will shake out like their Divisional matchup against the Lions. Jared Goff turned the ball over three times—once for a pick-six—and all turnovers led to Washington points. Detroit’s incredibly potent offense—much more potent and reliable when it comes to chunk plays—was forced to keep pace. And, in doing so, turned the ball over quickly.
Of any leg in this teaser, I’m most nervous about this game clearing the 61 points. But I don’t believe the Commanders get blown out by three possessions, so the +19 feels safe. And I’m banking on Quinyon Mitchell’s return to the Philadelphia secondary to get that defense back in gear a bit, such that they don’t almost give up 29 points, which they nearly did to the Rams. A cleaner game with fewer turnovers that should allow both offenses to impose their drive-sustaining, clock-chewing, under-leaning wills.
A total in the mid-fifties would be just fine, and would still be seven more points scored than the Eagles’ Divisonal matchup, which seemingly had explosive plays once every three drives.
Analysis on Bills +14.5/u60.5
When’s the last time the Chiefs have handily beaten anyone by over two scores in a barn-burning blowout? Because that’s what it’d take for this bet not to hit. And, frankly, I think I’m with the public that this is Josh Allen’s best shot at beating a Kansas City Chiefs team in an AFC Championship Game. Bills could (and, please, goodness—let them!) win outright.
There is simply just too much history between this team for the Bills to lose by more than two touchdowns. The Bills should be more prepared this time; Josh Allen is making better decisions with the ball; they have an efficient run game that eats clock unlike in years past; and their defense seems to be playing better than ever. Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau are having absolute monster playoffs on the edge. And though the Chiefs have Joe Thuney protecting Patrick Mahomes, I expect Buffalo to disrupt. Enough that this already inconsistent Chiefs offense might struggle to hit paydirt thrice this game.
Andy Reid, Matt Nagy, and Patrick Mahomes will have two or three plays from deep in their bag ready to deploy this game. It’s inevitable. It won’t look like Ben Johnson having Jameson Williams slice a forkball right into a defender’s arms, either. It’ll be more controlled, likely closer to the line of scrimmage. A potentially lateral-heavy approach that will allow a playmaker to get behind blockers and churn some yards. Maybe a deep ball to Hollywood Brown or Xavier Worthy. But those two guys are prayers on contested throws at best, right now.
The Chiefs’ defense has been the star of their season, and the legend of Spagnuolo will level itself at least in some way on the Bills’ offense.
Bottom Line: 13-point teaser on BUF +1.5/u47.5 & WAS +6/u47.5 (BUF +14.5/u60.5/WAS +19/u60.5 for -140)
Neither of these games scream favorite-blowouts, and neither scream scoring ceilings of cathedral magnitude. Again, this is a set-it-and-forget-it, ultra-conservative way to utilize the teaser option on DraftKings Sportsbook with both conference championship games this week. A bet for the folks who want some action on the games, but don’t want to let the anxiety of a massive potential payout ruin their spectatorship experience. Per se.
Tail this teaser with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Bills vs. Chiefs best bets, prop bets, and touchdown bets
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction (in bet form): Buffalo Bills Moneyline (+105)
I’m taking Buffalo to win at Arrowhead. Too much has gone too right for too long for these Kansas City Chiefs. And I don’t think there’s a more confident quarterback on the planet than Josh Allen right now. Jayden Daniels is cool, but Josh Allen is lake-effect ice.
The Bills defense was a bit shaky for my liking against Baltimore. Derrick Henry moved the ball with ease; Lamar Jackson more-or-less led a two-minute offense comeback, but for the dropped two-point conversion; even Mark Andrews’ fumble came on a wide-open crossing route, and what felt like poor ball security as opposed to tenacious Bills tackling. Still, the Ravens’ offense is better than the Chiefs’ by a large margin, and I expect the Bills can handle the less-effective power rushing game in Hunt/Pacheco behind Kansas City’s weak guards. Which makes the Joe Thuney of it all interesting: will they move him back to guard and just try to run the ball down the Bills’ throat? Or will they leave him at LT, where he was last game?
Last time Patrick Mahomes had a banged up ankle in the playoffs, it was against the Bucs in the Super Bowl. Mahomes’ inability to extend plays or elude pressure in the pocket was his ultimate downfall in that game. If there’s any part of Mahomes that is less-effective because of his lingering ankle ailment, this Bills pass rush is set to tee off. And I haven’t seen enough from Kansas City’s receivers, anyways, to believe they’ll be able to beat the Bills over the top. Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy—who?
I don’t believe the Chiefs’ defense will be able to make the Bills as one-dimensional as they did in years past. Again, this is the most dynamic Bills offense we’ve seen yet. Their offensive line is fantastic, and their ability to control possessions has never been better.
Quite simply, this is Josh Allen’s best shot yet to get a playoff win at Arrowhead, circumstantially. And—back to that icy, lake-effect confidence, now—he’ll sure do it. Bills to the Bowl.
Tail the Bills to beat the Chiefs with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Noah Gray Anytime TD (+390)
Anyone else feel like last week’s touchdown market results were, for the most part, a little chalky? Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Rashod Bateman, and Derrick Henry all were among the short-odds favorites to score last week, and all of them did. Of course, Ray Davis did and James Cook did not; Isaiah Likely did and Mark Andrews did not. Matthew Stafford’s two touchdown passes were to Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson as opposed to Puka Nacua or Kyren Williams.
Not to mention: Jeremiah Smith, Riley Leonard, and Quinshon Judkins all scored in the CFB National Championship.
So just how chalky do we believe this market can maintain for Conference Championship weekend? I’m interested in sprinkling on some longer-odds investments, like Noah Gray here. It’s a feel play, but he’s yet to show up big in the playoffs. Eventually, Travis Kelce is going to get Noah Gray-ed in the same way James Cook got Ray Davis-ed last week. Let’s see if we can throw a dart straight and true.
Tail Noah Gray Anytime TD with me in the DKN Betting Group!
James Cook Anytime TD (+125)
As mentioned above, this seemingly surefire touchdown bet didn’t hit in the Divisional Round. It’s likely more of an anomaly than anything that Cook didn’t see more work from the goal line last week. We know Josh Allen loves Ty Johnson, and often calls him the best third-down running back in the league. But Cook’s been a monster all year long from inside the 12-yard line. That Ray Davis and Josh Allen would vulture his touchdown opportunities two weeks in a row is unlikely; that Davis, Allen, and Johnson all have more snaps inside the goal-to-go territory than Cook two weeks in a row seems almost an impossibility.
Stats that make me feel comfortable with this bet at this price? James Cook’s 45.3% snap percentage in the red area. He led the league in rushing touchdowns. And intangibles? I don’t believe Josh Allen is gonna just score a billion touchdowns on goal line sneaks this playoffs. The Bills know James Cook is going to be a central piece to the last leg of a potential Super Bowl run. Etc.
I’m backing Buffalo’s feature back to hit paydirt in the AFC Championship Game after a career season. This is the one chalky TD bet I’m placing this weekend, just to balance the scales.
Tail James Cook Anytime TD with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Samaje Perine o1.5 receptions (+145)
I’m taking the plus money on Perine’s reception line. I think we might see Kansas City need to operate out of the two-minute-/four-minute-offense at least two-to-three times against Buffalo, if my predicted game-script shakes out. At some point, I’d bet the Chiefs will be playing from behind. No way they go wire-to-wire against these Bills.
That means potential opportunities for Perine, who really has yet to live out any sort of Jerick-McKinnon-adjacent role in this offense. I have a sneaky feeling this might be the game in which Reid, Nagy, & co. deploy him a bit more, simply because the Bills might not gameplan strongly against the checkdown for Mahomes.
It’s far more likely the Bills lead wire-to-wire than the Chiefs, and that’s enough for me to project Perine for 2+ receptions in this game.
Tail Perine to catch two-or-more receptions with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Player Special: Each Team to Score 1+ TD & 1+ FG in Each Half (+1400)
Quite honestly, if this were the NFC Championship game, I might be a bit more hesitant to sprinkle on this here. Washington and Philadelphia can both convert on 4th-and-3 downs-and-distances with the best of them. And, while the Bills can do so similarly, I think they’re going to have at least two opportunities this game—one in each half, surely—in which they’ll decide to run out Tyler Bass. This doesn’t scream of a game that’s going to get out of hand, so I doubt McDermott—a notoriously field-goal-happy coach—or Andy Reid and Harrison Butker are going to have much hesitation rolling out their kicking units when needed.
You also always have the possibility of the game coming down to a two-possession fourth quarter, in which Bass and Butker should surely be featured. A one-and-a-half-point spread screams the possibility of a 20-13 or 24-20 game, in which both teams will have to kick some field goals.
And—yes—the touchdowns speak for themselves.
Tail this Player Special with me in the DKN Betting Group!
Dalton Kincaid 5+ 1Q receiving yards (-105)
This has everything to do with believing Trent McDuffie will shut down Josh Allen’s other favorite receiving threat in Khalil Shakir. Allen’s going to have to rely on the air attack to move/keep ahead of the sticks as soon as the first quarter. And I think the safest bet to get his early targets is one of this seasons premier fantasy football disappointments: Dalton Kincaid.
Everybody eats, everybody eats, everybody eats. We know, Dawson Knox. Thanks for providing the locker room with hats that remind us. But I think Kincaid is simply due for a nice look or two in the first quarter that should help clear this line.
Tail Kincaid 5+ 1Q receiving yards in the DKN Betting Group!
