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Should you start Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in DraftKings DFS this week?

Should you start Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes in DraftKings DFS this week?

DraftKings Fantasy Advice DFS NFL

Updated:

By: Alex Hunter

Josh Allen ($7,500) and Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) go head-to-head in this Sunday’s highly anticipated AFC Championship. For DFS purposes, Mahomes is much more affordable than Allen, but Allen is still the far better option.

The Chiefs have been outstanding this season with a 16-3 record as they seek their third-consecutive Super Bowl, but Mahomes has by no means been a strong fantasy asset. Among quarterbacks, he ranks 19th in FPTS per dropback (0.46) and he has only scored over 20 FPTS four times in 17 starts. Mahomes has thrown 27 touchdowns, but he has also thrown 11 picks and his 6.8 YPA average is a career-low and 26th of 44 qualifying quarterbacks this season. Furthermore, Mahomes is averaging a career-low 3.8 rushes per game. The future Hall-of-Famer has been extremely clutch this season and very well could clinch another Super Bowl berth this Sunday, but Allen should well outperform Mahomes fantasy-wise in this matchup, no matter the outcome of this contest.

While Mahomes has taken a step backwards in the fantasy department, Allen has remained a fantasy superstar. This season, the quarterback ranks third in FPTS per dropback (0.72) and has recorded over 20 FPTS in 13 of his 18 starts, including two eruptions of 40+ FPTS. Allen ranks seventh in YPA (7.7) and has thrown 30 touchdowns to only six picks. As a rusher, Allen is averaging 5.7 attempts per game and ranks third in redzone rushes among quarterbacks with 31 attempts. With 12 rushing touchdowns, Allen ranks second only to Jalen Hurts in ground TDs among quarterbacks.

Allen’s elite dual threat ability gives him a massive ceiling on a weekly basis and against the Chiefs, he has historically been outstanding, scoring 30.7 FPTS per game in his last seven meetings with Kansas City. Plus, the Bills are a 1.5-point underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Sunday’s AFC Championship. In the 12 times Allen has competed as an underdog the last three seasons, he has produced 28.6 FPTS per game.

While taking the savings with Mahomes may seem enticing, going that route is a poor decision for DFS and paying up for Allen is undoubtedly the much better move.

Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.