Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Clippers star James Harden to have a 50% chance to play tonight at home versus Boston. With Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Kris Dunn and Ivica Zubac also ruled out, the Clippers are already an 12.5-point underdog at home. The Clippers’ 104 implied points are low enough that there’s a reasonable chance Harden follows suit and joins his teammates on the sideline.
While the game is only on DraftKings’ late slate for DFS players, there are major DFS and betting impacts if Harden were to miss tonight. In 652 possessions of court time without Kawhi and Zubac this year, Harden has averaged a 34.6% usage rate, 13.2% rebound rate and a 34.5% assist rate along with 1.5 DraftKings Points per Minute. With rates and production that look a lot more like Houston’s James Harden, he’d be a key part of the Clippers’ prospects of staying competitive with Boston tonight.
If Harden plays, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would project him for 24.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists. Unabated’s bet simulation tools also believe there’s 3.9% Expected Value on the over for Harden’s over 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Derrick Jones could be the biggest market beneficiary with all these Clippers players unavailable; he currently projects for 11.1 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.0 assist if Harden plays while he’d project for 12 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists if Harden sits. Jones would be a smash play with over 11% Expected Value if his previous market line of 15.5 PRAs becomes available again.
With this game off of DraftKings’ main DFS slate — and its big $5 Zone Special contest with $100,000 to first place — the Clippers’ Q-tag song and dance may not matter for a lot of players. But if you play tonight’s late slate (or place any bets), the Clippers and James Harden’s situation is one of the most interesting to monitor. It isn’t as linear of a pathway for replacement value as it is for someone like Ivica Zubac’s absence directly opening up more minutes and production for Mo Bamba. If Harden is out, any and all remaining active Clippers, and particularly the starters, should look like infinitely more valuable plays.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
