Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles. That’s the NFC Championship matchup we all expected, right?
While the AFC playoffs have played out mostly as expected, with the first-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and second-seeded Buffalo Bills meeting at Arrowhead Stadium to determine the conference’s Super Bowl berth, the NFC field has had plenty of shockers. The sixth-seeded Commanders beat the third-seeded Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then routing the first-seeded Detroit Lions, while the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Rams blew out the fifth-seeded Minnesota Vikings, who won 14 games in the regular season. What?
Philadelphia’s route through the playoffs has been straightforward. The Eagles handily beat the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers, 22-10, during Wild Card Weekend, before holding off the Rams in a 28-22 victory in the snow. Running back Saquon Barkley has turned his 51 carries into 325 yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia’s first two playoff games, following up a historic regular season with an even better postseason.
Washington has been slept on throughout the entire playoff run, even despite quarterback Jayden Daniels’ historic rookie season. Few expected the Commanders to beat the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round and fewer still gave them a chance against the 15-2 Lions at Ford Field. Yet Washington put up 28 points in the second quarter alone, forcing Detroit to wait at least another year for its first-ever Super Bowl appearance.
The Eagles won’t be sleeping on the Commanders, as the two divisional foes are deeply familiar with each other. The teams first met in Week 11, when two Barkley touchdowns within 20 seconds of each other — bisected by a Daniels interception — sealed a 26-18 victory for Philadelphia. But Washington returned the favor five weeks later, when a nine-yard touchdown pass by Daniels — his fifth of the game — in the waning moments sealed a dramatic, 36-33, win that held off the Eagles’ coronation for another week and announced the Commanders as serious contenders.
A further five weeks on, the stakes have never been higher. With a win, Philadelphia might have the chance to avenge its loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII two years ago, while Daniels would become the first rookie quarterback ever to make the Super Bowl with a Washington victory.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Eagles are six-point favorites (-285 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set at 47.5, while the Commanders are +230 on the Moneyline. Looking ahead, Philadelphia is a +180 favorite to lift the Lombardi Trophy, while Washington is +800. Let’s break down the NFC Championship Game, with one of my favorite prop bets and a score prediction at the end.
Saquon Barkley 2+ TD’s (+250)
The Eagles running back will undoubtedly be the best player on the field on Sunday.
The struggles of his final season with the New York Giants in 2023 have long since been forgotten. Throughout the regular season, he averaged just 25.2 touches per touchdown, and so far in the playoffs, Philadelphia has leaned on him heavily, with 57 touches in the first two games. He has scored two or more touchdowns in six of his 16 regular-season games and in two of his four postseason starts, including on Sunday against the Rams.
In the playoffs, Barkley has accumulated more rushing yards than quarterback Jalen Hurts has passing yards and as many rushing scores as Hurts has touchdown passes. In snowy conditions on Sunday, Hurts dropped back to pass just 27 times in 63 snaps, especially late in the game while dealing with a balky knee. Although there’s no snow forecasted during the NFC Championship Game and Hurts seemed confident that he’d play, he should get plenty of touches on Sunday regardless.
For all of their offensive brilliance, the Commanders have struggled to contain opposing running backs, allowing 1,935 yards and 16 touchdowns to the position during the regular season — both among the five worst marks in the league. Washington wasn’t much of a deterrent for Lions back Jahmyr Gibbs on Saturday, as Gibbs turned 14 carries into 105 yards and two touchdowns. In the teams’ two regular-season matchups, Barkley accumulated 348 yards on 57 touches and scored a pair of touchdowns in each game.
Score Prediction
Admittedly, I predicted that the Commanders would lose to Tampa Bay during the Wild Card Round, citing historic struggles by rookie quarterbacks in the postseason. I’ve also repeatedly called the Eagles the best team in the NFC.
Philadelphia might still be the best team in the conference, but the best team doesn’t always win, especially not against a team that’s firing on all cylinders like Washington is. Far from struggling, Daniels has completed 69.7% of his passes for 567 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions, adding 29 carries for 87 yards on the ground. He leads all postseason participants in completions, passing yards, touchdowns, interception rate, and sack rate.
The season-ending injury to right guard Sam Cosmi will hurt, especially against an Eagles defensive front headlined by All-Pro tackle Jalen Carter. History is not in the Commanders’ favor, and neither is the fact that Philadelphia’s defense is better against both the pass and the run. Barkley is the best player on either roster, and Hurts — if healthy — is no slouch, either.
But as a sports journalist, my job is to analyze the storyline, and football is filled with remarkable storylines. This season, there’s none better than a No. 2 overall pick leading a shocking charge to the Super Bowl in his rookie season.
Five rookie quarterbacks have made the conference championship game, and all five have lost. Daniels won’t be the sixth.
FINAL SCORE: Washington Commanders 38, Philadelphia Eagles 31
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