The AFC Championship Game is set and it will be an amazing game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. Here is a full preview of the matchup and the best bet to make at DraftKings Sportsbook.
For the fourth time in the past five years, the Chiefs and Bills are facing off in the playoffs. Kansas City defeated the Bills in the 2020 AFC Championship Game, the 2021 Divisional Round in overtime and the 2024 Divisional Round. All three of these games took place in Kansas City and so will this season’s meeting. The playoff history is not a good omen for Josh Allen and the Bills. However, the Bills did beat the Chiefs in the regular season which should inspire some confidence in the group. That regular season matchup took place in Buffalo so the setting won’t be the same, but the Bills players can easily visualize what it feels like to beat Patrick Mahomes because they just did it a couple of months ago.
There were two keys to victory for the Bills in that regular season matchup. First of all, the Bills won the turnover battle. Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions in the game, one on the Chiefs’ opening drive and one on the Chiefs’ final drive. The Bills’ defense jumped on Mahomes immediately and the Bills took advantage of it by scoring a touchdown with the good field position they were gifted. They then made sure Mahomes could not pull off a miracle comeback by taking it away on the Chiefs’ final drive, allowing the Bills to kneel out the clock.
However, the most important part of the game actually came from the Bills’ sidelines, not on the field. The Chiefs scored a touchdown with 7:53 left in the game to cut the deficit to two points. The Bills put together a really nice drive following that score and had gotten down to the Kansas City 26-yard line with just over two minutes left in the game. Buffalo had a 4th & 2 and could have kicked a field goal to make it a 5-point game with just over two minutes left. That is something we have seen teams do against the Chiefs many times and then Patrick Mahomes gets the ball with two minutes left and goes down the field to score a touchdown and win the game. Sean McDermott decided enough was enough and went for the fourth down, knowing that a first down would essentially win them the game. Not only did they get the first down, but Josh Allen broke the run 26 yards for a touchdown.
The Bills, hopefully, learned a very valuable lesson. You will always have a much better chance of trying to win the game with the ball in Josh Allen’s hands than trying to stop Patrick Mahomes from winning the game. If you can’t get two yards from Josh Allen, then you need a miracle from your defense to stop Mahomes from getting into field goal range. If you made the field goal, it would still take a miracle to stop Mahomes from scoring a game-winning touchdown. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the two quarterbacks that I would trust the most with the ball in their hands to win a playoff game. So Sean McDermott should have full trust in being aggressive on fourth downs, knowing that if his quarterback has the ball, then Patrick Mahomes stays on the sideline.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites and the total is set at 47.5. Here is my favorite prop bet and final score prediction for the game.
Best Prop Bet: Josh Allen Anytime TD (-115)
Josh Allen might lose out on the MVP to Lamar Jackson this season but for my money, he is the best quarterback in the world at the moment. Allen’s decision-making, ability to make every throw and running capability make him nearly impossible to defend. Allen also plays a different style in the biggest games than he does every other week and that is a positive trait. Patrick Mahomes is still the king of the NFL until he is dethroned and Mahomes does the same. Mahomes’ decision-making and style of play look much different in the playoffs than they do in the regular season and that is why the Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls. Josh Allen has developed a lot of that same style. For example, his numbers weren’t gaudy by any means against the Ravens in the Divisional Round but he did make all of the winning plays to get his team to this game.
One of the main things Allen does differently in the postseason is use his legs to the maximum. Allen is a great runner in general and the Bills utilize that during the regular season, but not to the same extent. Allen is smart enough to save his legs and protect his body when the stakes are lowered. Like many quarterbacks, including Mahomes, he is much more aggressive as a runner in the playoffs. Allen has 66 or more rushing yards in half of his career playoff games. In five career games against the Chiefs, regular season and postseason, Allen is averaging 44 rushing yards per game with double-digit rushing attempts in four of those five games. Allen has always been assertive with his rushing against the Chiefs’ defense which is so well-coached and full of veterans.
In recent playoff games, Allen has not put up as high of yardage figures on the ground but has instead saved his runs for the biggest plays. Allen has consistently had his number called in short-yardage situations and in the red zone, just like in the regular season matchup against the Chiefs where he ran for the game-sealing touchdown. Allen has an incredible six rushing touchdowns in his past five playoff games. He also has three rushing touchdowns in his five career games against the Chiefs. Whether it is on a designed run or a scramble, Allen will try to find the end zone on Sunday against the Chiefs and he should have success on the ground like he did in the regular season matchup between these teams.
Score Prediction
It should be an epic game between the Chiefs and Bills. Earlier this season, the game came down to Josh Allen’s big fourth-down conversion that went for a touchdown. In their past two postseason games, one went to overtime and one was decided by three points. These two teams always have great matchups and with these two quarterbacks, the game isn’t over until the clock hits 0:00. The Chiefs have the top seed and only lost one game with their starters on the field. However, based on the eye test and most advanced metrics, the Bills were actually the better team this season. The Bills finished 4th in the NFL in total DVOA and the Chiefs finished 8th. The Bills’ offense finished the regular season 2nd in EPA/play and the Chiefs finished 9th. The Bills finished 12th in defensive EPA/play and the Chiefs finished 15th.
The Bills’ running game could be the big difference-maker in this game. Between Josh Allen, James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis the Bills have an arsenal of players that are dangerous on the ground. They finished the season 3rd in offensive EPA/rush and have run the ball really well in the postseason so far. The Bills ran for over 200 yards against the Broncos and for nearly 150 yards against the Ravens. The Chiefs’ defense finished outside of the top ten in defensive EPA/rush and defensive rushing success rate. The Texans just ran for 149 yards against the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round, which almost allowed them to pull off the upset. Joe Mixon was productive on the ground and the normally stationary C.J. Stroud ran for 42 yards.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs ran for only 50 rushing yards against the Texans, and in the regular season matchup against Buffalo, they ran for only 78 yards. Especially on the road, it is key for the Bills to control the time of possession. If Buffalo can run the ball, pick up first downs and dominate the time of possession, it requires the Chiefs to be nearly flawless offensively. The Chiefs’ offense only had 4.2 yards per play against the Texans. If they have a similar offensive performance against the Bills, they will not be able to keep up with Josh Allen’s offensive output.
The Chiefs have had everything break their way this season. They have found ways to win games on special teams and with some controversial penalties going their way. Other teams have made big mistakes and they have gotten lucky at times to win games. The only team that was able to beat Patrick Mahomes in the regular season was the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen made winning plays, the Buffalo defense forced Mahomes into turnovers and Sean McDermott coached to win the game rather than not to lose it. If the Bills carry those lessons over to this game, they should beat the Chiefs. They have the better team on both sides of the ball and a quarterback who is just as dangerous as Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter. I am backing the Bills to win this game in another thriller between these two great teams.
