The Sunday slate of the NFL Divisional Round will be kicked off between the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams.
Philadelphia finished the regular season with a 14-3 record and has looked like legitimate contenders just about all year. They cruised to a 22-10 victory over the Packers in the opening week of the playoffs and will now take on a Rams team that looks to be playing its best football at the right time. Los Angeles defeated the Minnesota Vikings in its playoff opener with its defensive front recording nine sacks and possibly changing the trajectory of Sam Darnold’s career. It also should be noted that snow is expected during this game which could impact the style of play and is especially notable against a Rams team that spends their home games in a dome in Los Angeles.
The Eagles enter this game as six-point favorites and -305 on the Moneyline. The Rams are +245 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 42.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the NFC playoff matchup.
Saquon Barkley Over 110.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
You will not see very many rushing totals this high but it is for good reason. Saquon Barkley is coming off one of the most impressive regular seasons of all time and still looks to have plenty left in the tank. He became one of nine running backs in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards and elected to rest the final week of the regular season in preparation for the playoffs. Barkley picked up right where he left off last week rushing for 119 yards on the ground.
Looking back at the regular season, Barkley ran for an average of 125.3 rushing yards per game. He ran for over 110.5 rushing yards in nine games already this year including the matchup with the Rams during the regular season. During this Week 12 matchup, Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns against this Rams defense. This was the most rushing yards recorded by any player this year and the ninth-most rushing yards ever recorded in an NFL game.
Looking at this Rams defense, they rank 17th in points allowed, 26th in yards given up, 22nd in rushing yards allowed, and 26th in net yards per rush attempt. The Eagles lean on Barkley heavily in every game and the snow should only compound this. Expect the former Giants star to have his fingerprints all over this game and cruise past 110.5 rushing yards on the ground for the second time against the Rams this season.
Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
On top of the total yards, count on Barkley breaking free for a few explosive plays with at least one rush to be over 20.5 yards. Barkley has recorded the longest rush of over 20.5 yards in 11 of the 16 games in the regular season. He had a chance to reach this total again last week but elected to take a knee to close out the game after gaining 17 yards in what could have easily been a 70+ yard score.
There has never been a doubt about what a special talent Barkley is and he now has the benefit of running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Rams have given up the ninth-most rushing yards per attempt and eighth-most rushing yards over expected to running backs this season per NexGen Stats. The Rams allowed a 26-yard rush to Cam Akers just last week and Barkley is a far more explosive runner. He recorded two separate rushing yards of 70+ yards as evidence of this in the regular season as evidence of this.
Philadelphia has committed to winning football games in the trenches and its offensive line is a key part of its identity as a team. There are multiple runs per game in which Barkley gets to the second level without being touched, and he can make things happen from there. Expect Philadelphia’s offensive line to make its impact felt at the line of scrimmage and for Barkley to break free for at least one rush of over 20.5 yards in this matchup.
Cooper Kupp Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It is amazing to think that it was it was as recently as 2021 in which Cooper Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. The fall-off has been steep for the Super Bowl Champion, and if there was a different name on the back of the jersey for a player in these exact same circumstances this prop number would be lower. Kupp has not recorded over 36.5 receiving yards since Week 14 of the regular season. He was held to one catch for 29 yards in the victory over the Vikings with this being his only target in the game.
This Eagles’ defense will not make life any easier as they finished the season allowing an NFL-best 174.2 receiving yards per game. In the opening round of the playoffs, Jayden Reed led the Packers in receiving with 46 yards. Kupp tallied 60 receiving yards in the Week 12 matchup between these two teams, but Kupp has seen his role reduced and the Eagles’ defense improved since this point. Expect Cooper DeJean to primarily be tasked with slowing down Kupp who has emerged as one of the premier slot corners in the league. Since he became the starter in Week 6, the Eagles have allowed the fewest yards yards per play in nickel coverage by any team in the NFL since 2016. DeJean has only allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap as the nearest defender this year.
With Stafford targeting Puka Nacua and Tyler Higbee more consistently and the Eagles’ defense set to make its presence felt, count on Cooper Kupp being held under 36.5 receiving yards in this matchup. The concerns with the snow will only further solidify this belief and expect Kupp’s greatest impact to be as a decoy in this matchup.
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+160)
Social media was set on fire by the camera cut to A.J. Brown reading a book on the sideline of last week’s Eagles’ matchup with the Packers. The misunderstood star cleared the air this week saying this is something he does every week and the camera just happened to pick it up. He tallied just one catch for 10 yards on three targets in last week’s victory.
While Browns said all the right things publicly, this is far from the first flare-up he has had during his time in Philadelphia. Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts have a great feel for when he needs to be more involved to make sure his head is in the right place. Expect this week to be one of those spots.
Brown tallied 67 receptions for 1,079 receiving yards this season and reached the end zone in seven of the 13 regular season games he played. This includes the matchup with the Rams in which he tallied 109 yards and a touchdown. Los Angeles ranks 26th in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed. Expect a conscious effort to get Brown on the same page and score a touchdown in this matchup. Brown has a monstrous 6-foot-1 frame that can beat opponents in a variety of ways. Count on him getting a few chances around the end zone and for him to be looking a bit happier on the sideline this week.
