It is time for the game of the year––Bills vs. Ravens. Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson. As a Bills fan, I am nervous. Baltimore is a 1.5-point road favorite and the game total is set at O/U 51.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. This marks the only time in Bills postseason history that they are home underdogs. The Week 4 matchup between these teams was a Ravens beatdown and one of Josh Allen’s worst games of the season. I’m willing to bet things will be different this time around and there will be plenty of touchdowns to go around.
Since you’re here, you’re interested in first touchdown scorer prop bets. Here are the top six options in terms of odds.
- Derrick Henry (+475)
- Josh Allen (+750)
- James Cook (+800)
- Rashod Bateman (+1200)
- Mark Andrews (+1200)
- Lamar Jackson (+1300)
Please read below for my favorite choice for first touchdown scorer for Bills vs. Ravens.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Derrick Henry First TD Scorer (+475)
We aren’t going to overthink this one. I’ve seen Derrick Henry own my favorite team one too many times. I’ve also seen the Bills defense come out flat in many games this season, including last week in the Wild Card Round vs. the Broncos. Henry has scored the first touchdown in seven games this season and six touchdowns in just the last three matchups vs. the Bills. He totaled 200+ scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 against Buffalo.
The Bills defense ranks fifth in rush EPA but Henry’s annual ownage of Buffalo cancels that out. Lamar Jackson doesn’t have Zay Flowers again, which will help the Bills defense limit other pass-catchers. Jackson will likely lean on his tight ends and legs early on and Baltimore should have few issues getting into the red zone. King Henry scored 12 of his 18 touchdowns from within the red zone in the regular season and the Bills defense ranked inside the top-10 in first-quarter points allowed.
Henry averaged 4.8 first-quarter carries during the regular season but had just four last week versus Pittsburgh. Buffalo allowed the eighth-most first-quarter carries and sixth-most first-quarter rushing yards this season. The King is inevitable, especially against my Bills.
