The second matchup of the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs kicks off in Detroit between the Lions and the Washington Commanders.
Detroit has looked like a legitimate Super Bowl threat from start to finish this season. It finished the regular season leading the league in scoring and earned the top seed in the NFC with its 15-2 regular-season record. The Lions enjoyed the bye week in the opening round of the playoffs and now will look to put a stop to Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders for the first time.
This season should be considered a massive success for the Commanders regardless of the result of this game. However, considering Daniels’ mature approach to football, it is fair to remain optimistic about Washington’s outlook. The Commanders selected Daniels with the second overall pick in this year’s draft and the outlook for the organization has greatly changed. They enter this week following an impressive 23-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, marking the organization’s first playoff victory since 2005.
The Lions enter this game as 8.5-point favorites and -520 on the Moneyline. The Commanders are +390 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 55.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the NFC playoff matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Detroit Lions got some positive injury news that David Montgomery is expected to return to the field this week. Montgomery suffered an MCL injury in Week 15 that put the remainder of his season in doubt, but Detroit has seen enough from the veteran to allow him to make a return to the field. In his absence, Jahmyr Gibbs has proven plenty capable of handling the full rushing responsibilities and he should be expected to continue leading the way this week. Detroit is at its best when the “Sonic and Knuckles” backfield is in full force, but it is fair to be skeptical of how large of a workload Montgomery is capable of taking on.
Across the final three weeks of the season in which Montgomery was sidelined, Gibbs carried the ball 64 times for 365 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also added 122 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air across the same period. Across the season overall, Gibbs tallied 1,929 yards from scrimmage and a league-leading 20 total touchdowns.
Gibbs has recorded over 83.5 rushing yards in eight of the 17 games he has played. In addition, the rushing defense is the weak spot in this Washington defense. The Commanders finished the regular season ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed, 28th in net yards per rush attempt and 18th in rushing touchdowns conceded. Detroit has a dominant offensive line that will pave the way and Gibbs is plenty capable of making the rest happen. Expect Gibbs to continue to be in the driver’s seat for the majority of the carries and break free for a few significant runs during this matchup. Count on him to record over 83.5 rushing yards against the Commanders’ struggling rush defense and be a huge part of this game from start to finish.
Jayden Daniels Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (+105)
Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner has opened up plenty of eyes with his arm alone, but Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat ability is a huge part of what makes him so special. In addition to the 3,568 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns, Daniels has added 891 rushing yards and six touchdowns with his legs during the regular season.
While he was limited to 36 rushing yards against the Buccaneers last week, he rushed the ball 13 times. The LSU product has tallied 11 or more rushing attempts just six times this season, but three of these came over the past five weeks. Daniels led the NFL in scrambles (78) and yards from scrambles (613) this season and this is where the bulk of his rushing opportunities should be expected. Detroit ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate and also ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks on the season.
This line increased from 9.5 last week to 10.5 rush attempts this week, but expect Daniels to still reach this total. While the rushing yards prop of over/under 55.5 rushing yards and an anytime touchdown at +165 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are also appealing, the over 10.5 rush attempts is my favorite Daniels bet on the slate. His rushing numbers are not as convincing as the reality as Daniels battled a rib injury midseason, which limited his rushing output. With the young quarterback back to being healthy and the playoffs on the line, expect him to take off when the opportunity presents itself. Look for him to escape the pocket whenever he feels pressure and for Daniels to replicate last week’s output by rushing the ball over 10.5 times tonight.
Terry McLaurin Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While he has not always had the quarterback to match his level of talent, Terry McLaurin has been a model of consistency during his time in the NFL. This season marks his fifth consecutive season with 1,000+ receiving yards and he is coming off the best playoff performance of his career. During last week’s victory over the Buccaneers, McLaurin was targeted 10 times and pulled in seven receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted twice as much as any other Commanders pass catcher.
As talented as Detroit is offensively, they have had their struggles stopping opponents. Across the regular season, Detroit ranked 20th in yards allowed, 30th in passing yards allowed and 23rd in net yards per pass attempt. They lost top corner Carlton Davis in December and allowed a league-high 185.1 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers during the regular season.
McLaurin ranks much higher on the list of top wide receivers in the NFL than he gets credit for and will have a chance to prove this in the matchup. With Detroit holding some defensive concerns and McLaurin sure to be at the top of Washington’s pecking order, expect a strong performance tonight. He has recorded over 68.5 receiving yards in nine games this season, including last week, so look for him to add to this with at least 69 receiving yards tonight.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown & Terry McLaurin Anytime TD Parlay (+475)
Points are expected to be plentiful in this matchup. The over/under is set at 55.5 points for this matchup, which marks the sixth-highest game total in NFL playoff history. For reference, the over/under for the Chiefs vs. Texans was 41.5 and the other NFC matchup between the Eagles and Rams is set at 43.5 points, both numbers nearly two touchdowns lower.
Detroit led the NFL in scoring this season with 33.2 points per game. Jahmyr Gibbs reached the end zone an NFL-best 20 times this season and holds -245 odds of an anytime touchdown this week. He reached the end zone in 13 of the 17 games he played. Amon-Ra St. Brown was not far behind him, recording 12 touchdowns on the season and scoring in 11 of the 17 games. The star wide receiver recorded a streak of eight consecutive games with a touchdown this season and will be fully unleashed again in this matchup with the playoff stakes in mind.
If Washington is to have any sort of chance in this game, it is going to need to put up some points. On the season, the Commanders rank fifth in scoring and average 28.5 points per game. Terry McLaurin played a key role in this and produced a career-high 13 touchdowns during the regular season. He reached the end zone in nine of the 17 games, including four games this season with two touchdowns, and found the end zone in the opening week of the playoffs.
With so much at stake with the playoffs on the line, expect both teams to count on their stars to deliver. Washington greatly struggles to stop the run while Detroit can struggle against the pass, making for some overlapping strengths and weaknesses across these two teams. Expect there to be plenty of scoring to go around and for the main stars to be involved. Both these teams will lean on what got them here, so look for all three of these offensive weapons to make their way into the end zone tonight.
