This Saturday, the most prominent MMA organization returns for its first PPV of 2025: UFC 311. Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev will defend his title against No. 10 Renato Moicano since Arman Tsarukyan cannot compete. But let’s look at the co-main event featuring Makhachev’s cousin, No. 2 Umar Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov is next in the family tree to try to capture UFC gold. He will fight Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili in a five-round title bout. Nurmagomedov is a -270 favoiete on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s look at how the public is betting on this fight.
Betting Splits
Although the handle is now split 50-50 between Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov, the public is confident that the challenger will get the job done. 71 percent of the bets are on Nurmagomedov, while the champion only gets 29 percent of bets on the moneyline. On the main card, Nurmagomedov has the second-largest percentage of bets for himself behind Jailton Almeida (87%).
Dvalishvili lost his first two fights in the UFC but has won his last 11 bouts since then. He has won against former UFC champions in his previous four fights. Dvalishvili’s crowning achievement came at UFC 306 in September when he defeated Sean O’Malley. Even though he has accomplished so much in the sport, it hasn’t come easy. Dvalishvili was at least a -120 favorite in his last two fights, but he was the underdog against Petr Yan in March 2023.
Nurmagomedov is highly talented and has an undefeated record (18-0), but he is still new to fighting the top competition. He jumped into the deep water as he fought and beat No. 4 Cory Sandhagen in August. I imagined this betting line to be closer to even, but it isn’t shocking since he hasn’t been beaten yet and has Khabib Nurmagomedov in his corner.
