The Chiefs host the Texans on Saturday afternoon of the Divisional Round. Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite over the Texans with an over/under of 41.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
The Chiefs had an incredible regular season, going 15-2, capped by a Week 18 without their starters on the field. They earned the top seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that comes with it. After all of the higher seeds won in the AFC Wild Card Round, the Chiefs will be hosting the Texans. The Texans had the AFC South locked up for almost the entire second half of the season but it was an up-and-down season for Houston. They started the season really strong but went 4-5 in their final nine games of the regular season. The Texans really struggled with injuries throughout the season, especially to their wide receivers, and that took their offense out of a rhythm. However, they looked really sharp on both sides of the ball against the Chargers in their Wild Card win.
The public is unsurprisingly all over the back-to-back Super Bowl champions on the moneyline. The Chiefs are getting 81% of the moneyline bets and 89% of the moneyline handle. However, on the spread, it is a much closer split. The Texans are actually getting a majority of the spread bets. Houston is getting 52% of the bets but only 41% of the handle which means that bigger bettors are backing the Chiefs. The public seems to have found their faith in the Texans after their great performance against the Chargers. They are also skeptical of the Chiefs’ ability to blow teams out because they have done it so rarely this season. These two teams faced off in the regular season and the Chiefs won by eight points so this spread is right on that number.
When it comes to the total, the public is on the over, as they typically are. 63% of bets are on the over 41.5 but only 53% of the handle. That means that some bigger bets have come in on the under. The line movement on the total from 42.5 down to 41.5 also indicates that their have been bigger bets coming in on the under. The Texans’ defense has been one of the best in the NFL all season and the Chiefs’ defense is always great in the postseason. This could be a more conservative approach from both teams, trying not to make that key mistake that flips the game in the other team’s favor. It could be a field-position battle for a lot of this game which would likely lead to an under.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the five most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for the Chiefs vs. Texans matchup:
- Isiah Pacheco 50+ Rushing Yards (+130)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+155)
- Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown (+205)
- Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown (+130)
- Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown (+155)
The public loves Isiah Pacheco in this game. I only included the most popular Pacheco rushing prop which was 50+ rushing yards but Pacheco to have 40+, 60+ and 70+ rushing yards were all very popular bets as well. Pacheco missed a majority of the season after suffering an injury in Week 2. He came back in time to play five games down the stretch but only averaged 35 rushing yards per game during that stretch. The public is also backing Pacheco to find the end zone in this game but he only has one touchdown on the year and it came in the season opener against Baltimore. Pacheco has been splitting carries with Kareem Hunt since his return and has not seemed like a dependable option but bettors are counting on him to step up his production in the postseason.
Travis Kelce is always one of the most popular players in the prop market. Kelce is the most bet-on player to score a touchdown in this game and with his career postseason success, it comes as no surprise. Kelce has 19 touchdowns in 22 career playoff games so he has proven time and again that his play rises in the biggest games. That being said, it has not been Kelce’s best season statistically. He still finished 12th in the league in receptions but his yardage numbers took a bit of a downturn and most importantly for this bet, he only had three touchdowns all season. Kelce has not been a reliable option to find the end zone this season but bettors are backing him to keep up his high levels of postseason production.
Xavier Worthy is another popular bet to score a touchdown. The rookie wide receiver has had a solid season in Kansas City, especially dealing with the injuries and suspensions to other skill position players which have forced Worthy into a bigger role. Worthy is second behind Travis Kelce in receptions and receiving yards for the Chiefs this season and he leads the team in receiving touchdowns with six. Worthy is a dangerous gadget player in the screen game and he also has three rushing touchdowns this season. So with nine total touchdowns, he leads the team in scores and Andy Reid should get him the ball in creative ways for this game.
Joe Mixon to score a touchdown is the most popular player prop from the Texans side. Mixon has been a great addition to this Houston offense and has made life much easier for C.J. Stroud. Mixon was playing on another level to start the season but started to tail off down the stretch, along with the rest of the Houston offense. However, Mixon bounced back strong on Wild Card Weekend, running for over 100 yards and a touchdown. That was Mixon’s 13th total touchdown of the season. Mixon failed to find the end zone when these teams faced in the regular season but bettors are backing Mixon to get it done this time around.
