As it stands now, Lions stud RB Jahmyr Gibbs is the short-odds favorite to score an Anytime TD on DraftKings Sportsbook on NFL Divisional Round Saturday. His odds to score, as it stands, are a whopping -245—practically unbettable, outside of including it as a leg in a parlay. Having said that, with the King of the End Zone promotion still rolling this weekend, if Gibbs scores the longest touchdown of the day, bettors will receive a bonus bet that would make having wagered on Gibbs exponentially worth it.
Let’s run through the details of the promotion again, and evaluate whether or not Gibbs can score the longest TD of the day against the Washington Commanders tonight at 8:00 pm.
King of the End Zone — What You Need to Know
Past King of the End Zone Winners
Monday, January 13: Rams D/ST | 57-yard fumble return touchdown | 5,481 users bet on Rams D/ST, each earning a $365 bonus bet
Sunday, January 12: Curtis Samuel | 55-yard receiving touchdown | 146 users bet on Samuel, each earning a $13,699 bonus bet
Saturday, January 11: Ladd McConkey | 86-yard receiving touchdown | 29,578 users bet on McConkey, each earning a $68 bonus bet
King of the End Zone Preview & Picks | Saturday, January 18
Players with shortest odds to score a TD:
- Jahmyr Gibbs (-245)
- David Montgomery (-155)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (-125)
- Terry McLaurin (+110)
- Jameson Williams (+130)
- Joe Mixon (+140)
Jahmyr Gibbs’ ability to rip off long TDs
Here’s a nugget from NFL Next Gen Stats I love about Gibbs’ ability to burst through the tackles because of Detroit’s offensive line’s ability to keep him blocked for 2.4 yards before contact:
This is a similar stat to one floated around often about Saquon Barkley, who’s also known for his explosive touchdown runs of great length. The Eagles’ offensive line led the NFL this year in yards before contact. It’s why Barkley and the Eagles would have considered the rushing record a team award, really.
This stat is germane to this argument because we all know that Gibbs can tear off long touchdowns with his own speed and elusiveness on outside runs, off tackle blocking schemes, etc. We all know he runs checkdowns to the sticks for Jared Goff, some of which have resulted in touchdowns. He’s hit paydirt four times through the air this year. Knowing, also, that Gibbs and the Lions o-line have been affording opportunities for explosive runs between the tackles makes the likelihood that Gibbs could score from distance even higher.
Having said that, the David Montgomery of it all concerns me once more. Not because Montgomery is any threat in this case to rip off a long touchdown. It’s the potential split volume that’s got me shying away from Gibbs as King of the End Zone today. Montgomery will have his drives, and might start seeing carries just outside the redzone, which would mean Gibbs’ chance of a 20+ yard touchdown on a prolific Lions drive could plummet.
Also of note: Jameson Williams took the latest Lions hook-and-ladder to the house, whereas Gibbs crossed the goal line with the same play earlier in the season. The return of Montgomery might open up Gibbs to be a primary read on a potential Ben Johnson trick play, but I think Jameson Williams might be catching fire at the right time.
Washington’s penchant for allowing explosive runs
One thing that might encourage you to include Gibbs in a same-game parlay for King of the End Zone—if you want to parlay him with, say, Terry McLaurin and Jameson Williams for the night game—is the Commanders’ susceptibility to explosive run plays. They finished the season with the fifth-most runs of 15+ yards or more (64) and the sixth-worst explosive run percentage (13.1%).
If Gibbs gets to the second level, it’s not out of the question that he could create all the daylight he needs to take it to the house.
Should you back Jahmyr Gibbs as King of the End Zone for Divisional Round Saturday? – No.
I might not even include Gibbs in my parlays today. I feel like the King of the End Zone might once more be a speedy wide receiver who disarms and beats the defense, much like Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown showed they could do last week.
My preferred King of the End Zone parlay for today is fairly chalk:
- Jameson Williams (+130)
- Nico Collins (+180)
Parlay odds: +544
