The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs kicks off with a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans.
Kansas City enjoyed the benefit of the bye week and enters fully rested after going 15-2 in the regular season. In contrast, Houston produced a thrilling comeback victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card with their defense forcing four interceptions from Justin Herbert. Houston’s C.J. Stroud led the NFL in passing yards last week but will need an even more impressive performance as they attempt to take down the back-to-back defending champions.
The Chiefs enter this game as 8.5-point favorites and -445 on the Moneyline. The Texans are +350 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 41.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the AFC playoff matchup.
Kareem Hunt Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
After starting the season without being on an NFL roster, Kareem Hunt welcomed the opportunity to return to the Chiefs this season. This was sparked by an injury to Isaiah Pacheco and Hunt has continued be a part of the offense even after the starting running back returned.
Across the 13 regular season games that Hunt suited up for, he ran for 728 total yards or 56.0 yards per game. Hunt still saw double-digit carries in two of the five games he played alongside Pacheco and recorded more carries than the perceived lead back twice when they both played.
Overall Hunt has recorded over 32.5 rushing yards in 10 of the 13 games he has been active for. This Texans defense ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed and 11th in net yards per rush attempt. However, it should also be noted temperatures are expected to be near freezing with some winds at the time of kickoff. Expect a more run-oriented approach to account for weather and for both Chiefs’ running backs to have their opportunities. 32.5 rushing yards is too low of a bar for Kareem Hunt, so expect the former Pro Bowl running back to make the most of his chances with the elements on his side.
Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+165)
After entering the season with a list of diverse passing weapons and a high-powered offense, injuries have taken a toll. Both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the season, leaving Nico Collins as the clear-cut top option in the Texans’ passing game.
Collins produced his second consecutive 1,000-yard season this year and caught seven total touchdown passes. He reached the end zone last week against the Chargers on a 13-yard reception. Collins has the benefit of being a big play threat in addition to a reliable red zone option. Stroud targets him for big scoring plays regularly, but he also is a legitimate threat in the normal flow of play with his 6-foot-4 frame.
Kansas City has leaned on a more defensive approach this season, but they have been weaker against the pass compared to their run defense. The Chiefs rank 28th in passing yards allowed, 12th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 14th in net yards per pass attempt. If the Texans are to have any chance of winning this game they are going to need to put up points. Outside of Joe Mixon, who holds +140 odds of an anytime touchdown on DraftKings Sportsbook, Collins will be the clearcut top option to reach the end zone. Injury issues to Mixon have me slightly concerned with his outlook, so I expect Collins to deliver with his +165 odds.
Patrick Mahomes Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (+100)
While they have leaned on their defense more this season than most years, the Chiefs still go as Patrick Mahomes takes them. With that said, don’t be surprised if Kansas City leans on the rushing attack more to chew out the clock, especially with the freezing temperatures in mind.
Looking at the regular season, Mahomes only threw under 36.5 pass attempts in five of the 16 games he played. However, playoff football is a different beast and Sam Darnold is the only quarterback to have attempted this many throws across the entire league during last week’s games. Houston has been strong against the pass this season and allows the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt, third-lowest net yards per pass attempt, and the second-lowest dropback success rate.
The Chiefs have proven this season that their blueprint is to win at all costs regardless of how pretty it looks. Expect them to be completely comfortable taking the lead and running out the clock if that is what the game script dictates. Mahomes has thrown under 36.5 pass attempts in three of his past seven playoff games, and expect him to add to the list this week against a stingy Texans defense in bad weather.
Travis Kelce Over 70+ Receiving Yards (+205)
While his standard of expectations is incredibly high, this was a down season for Travis Kelce. The future Hall of Famer finished with 97 receptions for 823 yards and three touchdowns. This marks the fewest receiving yards and touchdowns of his career.
Even still, there are very few players with the amount of playoff experience that Kelce possesses. It has felt like the Chiefs did not put their foot all the way on the gas with Kelce’s usage this season and this will change with everything at stake. Kelce’s standard over/under to this matchup is set at 53.5 receiving yards. While this is certainly appealing as well, I like the value of +205 odds for him to reach 70+ receiving yards.
Kelce has reached 70 yards just five times this season. However, he has reached this number in 13 consecutive playoff games and has not been held to fewer than five receptions in a playoff game since 2019. Expect the bye week to prove valuable for the 35-year-old and for Patrick Mahomes to lean on him far more frequently than was the case in the regular season. Kelce is as important to this era of Chiefs football as Mahomes, so expect him to be back at the forefront of the offensive attack with playoff stakes on the line.
