Good news, everyone!
The 2025 MLB season is unofficially underway, as the player props are now live on the DraftKings Sportsbook. This includes a new feature for the coming year: Home Runs X+. This allows users to move past the standard over/under totals for a player and basically pick your own line.
There’s over 550 current options to choose from, so allow me to narrow down the list with a few of my favorites.
2025 Home Run Player Props
Ezequiel Tovar 30+ Home Runs (+295)
This feels like pretty good value for a man that hit 26 home runs last season and plays half his games at Coors Field. Though, interestingly enough, Tovar wasn’t someone who was a complete product of the altitude in 2024. In fact, Tovar hit exactly half of his long balls on the road, a split where he posted a higher ISO (.209) and wRC+ (104). When projecting forward, it’s nice to know that the shortstop isn’t a complete write-off for 81 games of the Rockies’ schedule.
While Tovar isn’t the most physically imposing figure in the box, he does profile like a power bat. Last season he posted an 87th percentile launch angle sweet spot rate (38.5%) and a respectable 60th percentile barrel rate (9.0%). He also knew how to play to his surroundings. You can play all the games you want at Coors, but it doesn’t matter if you can’t get the ball in the air. That’s why Tovar’s shift from a 33.8% fly ball rate in 2023 to a 45.9% fly ball rate in 2024 is so important. Add that on top of Tovar’s predilection for putting the ball in play — his 467 batted ball events sat just outside the top 30 in baseball — and the volume starts to make sense for a big home run campaign.
At these odds, he’s at least worth a shot.
Elly De La Cruz 30+ Home Runs (+175)
Let’s stick with young shortstops in the National League, shall we? I think we’re all aware that Elly De La Cruz is on the path to superstardom and the next logical step is a huge home run output. It’s not like it’s all the massive a jump to 30, either. In 160 games in 2024, De La Cruz hit 25 long balls and posted a very respectable .212 ISO.
He’s certainly not lacking in the power department. Thanks to 90th percentile bat speed, De La Cruz ranked in the 88th percentile of average exit velocity (91.8) and the 86th percentile of barrel rate (12.7%) in his sophomore campaign. He also registered a maximum exit velocity of 114.7 mph and his farthest home run traveled 455 feet. These are not normal things. These are elite traits for a player that only turned 23-years-old at the beginning of January.
De La Cruz could easily luck his way into 30 homers in 2025, but he’d be helping himself out a considerable amount if he could lower his strikeout rate a few percentage points. Anything to produce more batted ball events — particularly when the Reds are swinging the bats at Great American Ball Park. By Park Factors, Cincinnati was the best place to hit home runs last season.
Jarren Duran 20+ Home Runs (+140)
I’m a little surprised to see Duran with these odds. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like the outfielder is the next coming of David Ortiz when it comes to power and it’s not like Fenway is all that great a home run park — despite what some may think. Still, in his first full season at the MLB level, Duran hit 21 home runs. That is more than 20, my friends.
Now, some of Duran clearing this prop in 2024 can be chalked up to pure volume. Duran played in 160 games and took 735 plate appearances, which happened to be the most of any player in the league. You can’t necessarily assume that Duran is going to be healthy enough for that to take place again, yet he did see 95.9% of those PAs as the Red Sox’s leadoff hitter. That’s a role he’s locked into going forward and it’s a role that will always help a player get a few dozen extra at-bats by season’s end.
It’s also not like Duran doesn’t have an intriguing skill-set or the ability to improve. Duran posted 76th percentile average exit velocity (90.8) in 2024, along with a 91st percentile maximum exit velocity (113.9). He’s not hitting wall-scrapers. This man has some pop. Expect him to build off a breakout campaign with an even better season in 2025.
