Fresh off a dominant win on Wild Card Weekend, the Baltimore Ravens look every bit like the Super Bowl contenders which were promised.
The Ravens, led by should-be MVP Lamar Jackson, possess a potent offensive attack that puts up points both on the real gridiron and the virtual one. Baltimore is lighting offensive fireworks week in and week out and cruised to the Wild Card win despite missing star wideout Zay Flowers due to a knee issue.
Now, Flowers is listed as doubtful for the Divisional Round matchup with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. If he missed the contest should fellow wideout Rashod Bateman be in fantasy lineups?
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A breakout season
Bateman struggled with injuries over his first few NFL seasons, but the former first-rounder truly started to hit his stride over the course of this campaign. He finished the regular season with 45 receptions for 746 yards and nine touchdowns, both of which are by far career-highs. While his target volume was never the most reliable at just over four per game, Bateman’s burner speed helped him cement his place as the WR2 and field-stretching threat in Baltimore’s high-powered offense.
Most importantly, Bateman appeared in all 17 of the Ravens’ games and posted a snap share of 60% or greater in all but three of those contests. With more time spent on the field than in any of his past campaigns, he also finished second on the team in targets with 74, two more than the next-closest pass catcher, Mark Andrews. His yardage total was also second-best among Baltimore’s receiving weapons. Bateman’s not a star, but that’s okay — the fourth-year wideout finally proved he’s an NFL-caliber talent when fully healthy.
If Flowers is out…
If Flowers doesn’t play, Bateman will be elevated to top-dog status among the wide receiver room. He’s not the playmaker Flowers is, but a world in which Bateman soaks up his counterpart’s target share of nearly seven looks per game is a fun hypothetical. Could he have a breakout game on the national stage? Sure, but unfortunately, receiver workloads can be tougher to predict after injuries.
Bateman will likely continue running the same route tree as his current role requires, but he could see a couple of additional looks throughout the game. Things get more fun when predicting touchdown potential, though. Bateman actually paced the roster with eight red-zone targets this season and converted these looks at a 75% rate. He performed better inside the 20-yard line than Flowers, who saw seven high-value looks and converted them at a 42.9% rate.
What’s the lesson to be learned here? The Ravens scored a lot of long touchdowns and didn’t pass much in the red zone overall. However, Bateman even a slight uptick in targets compared to usual lends itself to a safer fantasy floor. That’s a big deal since he scored double-digit fantasy points in eight-of-17 games, though it came on limited volume with a run-heavy team, which arguably makes his 10.4 FPPG even more impressive.
Is Bateman a DFS must-play in the Divisional Round? As the 12th-most expensive receiver in the lineup pool, he’s certainly worth considering given his high ceiling in an explosive offense. It’s your call, but he could very well exceed his $4,900 salary.
