Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Knicks star Karl-Anthony Towns to have a 50% chance to play tonight in a home game versus his former team, the Timberwolves. Towns missed last game versus the Sixers after he played 40 minutes in the game prior to that. For tonight, Towns is currently questionable with a thumb injury.
Towns’ potential absence creates outlier opportunities for the remaining Knicks. In the Knicks’ last game which had Towns sidelined, Josh Hart played an insane 49 minutes as he put up a 10-point, 17-rebound, 12-assist triple-double in the team’s overtime win over Philadelphia. In that same game, Jalen Brunson also had elite fantasy upside with 53.3 DraftKings Points as he put up 38 real-life points, five rebounds, and four assists.
The reason Towns’ absence is so crucial is because of how much he’s dominated statistically so far this year. Towns averages 1.5 DraftKings Points Per Minute with 27.4% usage, a 23.1% rebound rate and a 14.8% assist rate. Those kinds of numbers leave behind a lot of valuable potential production for the remaining Knicks, even in a matchup against the low-paced and defensively sound Wolves.
If Towns plays tonight, Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would have him projected for 24.3 points, 13.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Towns would be a top tournament option on tonight’s DraftKings slate as well as a viable bet relative to his under 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If Towns sits, there are major ramifications for the expected production of his Knicks teammates:
- Jalen Brunson projects for 30.9 points, 4.0 rebounds and 7.1 assists (25.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists if Towns plays)
- Josh Hart projects for 14.0 points, 11.2 rebounds and 6.5 assists (12.6 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5.7 assists if Towns plays)
- Mikal Bridges projects for 19.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists (16.7 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.6 assists if Towns plays)
- OG Anunoby projects for 16.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists (13.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists if Towns plays)
There would also be huge Expected Value for bets on Towns’ teammates if he were to miss today. Unabated’s simulation tools project OG Anunoby for 23.2% EV on his over 20.5 PRAs line on DraftKings Sportsbook. Similarly, you’d see 13.6% EV on Mikal Bridges’ over 22.5 PRAs, 8.6% EV on Josh Hart’s over 29.5 PRAs and a team-high 29.6% EV on Jalen Brunson’s over 36.5 PRAs. If Towns gets ruled out, you’d want to act quickly on these lines to capitalize.
With a five-point spread favoring New York at home, it does seem like a line that indicates Towns may give it a go. Either way, it should be a competitive situation with room for production for Towns if he’s in — and a lot more upside for his remaining Knicks teammates if he’s out.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
