The Los Angeles Rams had probably the most surprising performance of Wild Card Weekend, downing the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings in a 27-9 drubbing just days after the game was moved to Glendale, Ariz. amid devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area.
The Rams’ reward? A visit to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday, where the Philadelphia Eagles comfortably took care of business, downing the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers, 22-10. To be fair to Los Angeles, it’s probably a better matchup than a date with the Detroit Lions would have been, but the Eagles are still a tough opponent.
Philadelphia has been led this year by running back Saquon Barkley, who had the eighth-most productive single-season rushing performance in NFL history during the regular season and opened his playoff campaign with a 25-carry, 119-yard performance against Green Bay. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been no slouch either, completing a career-high 68.7% of his passes for 2,903 yards, 18 touchdowns, and five picks during the regular season.
DraftKings Sportsbook favors the Eagles by six points, with the point total set to 43.5. Philadelphia is -278 on the Moneyline, while the Rams are +225.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Saquon Barkley ($16,800 CP) – At some point, it becomes boring to take Barkley every week, but when he’s easily the best fantasy asset on either team, it’s hard not to, especially against a Los Angeles defense that is good, but not great, against the run. I chose Barkley last week against the Packers, and he had a good game. It would’ve been a great game if he’d decided to score a touchdown instead of sliding down short of the goal line in the waning moments of the game.
Barkley is simply inevitable, and he’s also the workhorse of an Eagles offense that was the single most run-dependent scheme in the league. In the 2024-25 regular season, he recorded at least 100 rushing yards in all but five of his games, and the 1,648 rushing yards he recorded in those 11 100-yard performances alone would’ve still put him far ahead of every running back in the league except for Henry. He also found the end zone at least once in exactly half of his regular season games.
The Rams have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, and they successfully held Vikings running back Aaron Jones to just 60 scrimmage yards on 16 touches on Monday. In total, Los Angeles allowed just 1,725 rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, the 13th-fewest in the NFL, as well as just nine touchdowns, tied for the ninth-fewest. Unfortunately, 255 of those yards and two of those touchdowns came from Barkley, who was unstoppable in Philadelphia’s 37-20 victory in Week 12.
Matthew Stafford ($13,800 CP) – The 16-year veteran hasn’t exactly had his finest season, but a 65.8% completion percentage, eight interceptions — his fewest in a full season — and a 93.7 passer rating is far from terrible. Plus, he stepped up during the Wild Card Round with a vintage performance, completing 19 of his 27 passes for 209 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks. His performance marked continued solid form that began over his last seven weeks of the regular season, when he threw for 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns with only one interception.
Stafford has also been a historically good playoff performer throughout his career. In nine career postseason starts — of which his team has won five — he has completed 67.5% of his passes for 2,672 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. His career averages of 296.9 yards per game, 7.64 net yards per attempt, and 7.85 adjusted net yards per attempt all lead active players. It’s far from a coincidence that the Rams traded for him and immediately won the Super Bowl.
The Eagles do have a great pass defense, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This season, Philadelphia conceded just 3,266 passing yards, the second-fewest in football, as well as only 22 touchdowns, tied for the sixth-fewest. The Eagles’ biggest weakness against opposing quarterbacks comes against the run, and Stafford is the least mobile among the league’s eight remaining quarterbacks. Still, he’s been able to find success in the past against Philadelphia, completing 24 of his 36 passes for 243 yards and two scores in the Week 12 loss. He’ll probably benefit from the season-ending injury to Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean, who held opposing passers to just an 80.8 passer rating on his 45 targets.
FLEX Plays
DeVonta Smith ($8,000) – With Smith and A.J. Brown ($10,000), Philadelphia has one of the best one-two wide receiver punches in the league. This season, Smith hauled in 68 passes for 833 yards and eight touchdowns, while Brown recorded 67 catches, 1,079 yards, and seven scores of his own. As a duo, Smith and Brown probably only trail Detroit’s tandem of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams among wide receiver corps left in the postseason.
While he put up a few stinkers in the regular season, Smith still ranks second on the team with a 26.6% target share and reached the 100-yard threshold in two of his last three regular-season games. In the Wild Card Round, he hauled in all four of his targets for 55 yards, which was enough to lead the team in a game where the Eagles predominantly handed the ball off. Smith’s 76.4% catch percentage in 2024 was the seventh-best among all wide receivers who caught at least 25 passes.
Smith has a good matchup on Sunday against a mediocre Los Angeles secondary that allowed only the 15th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Although the Rams allowed only the 11th-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers, they also conceded 20 touchdowns, the most among all teams still remaining in the playoffs. Los Angeles cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, who was excellent towards the end of the season, has officially been listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest after leaving the Wild Card Round game early with a thigh injury.
Puka Nacua ($10,400) – Unfortunately for Smith, the Rams have a better version of him on their roster: Nacua. Much like Philadelphia’s deep threat is Brown and Smith is more of a speedster, the screen pass to Nacua has become a staple of Los Angeles’ playbook, and his 7.9-yard average depth of target is among the lower figures among starting wide receivers. Nacua made opposing defenses pay on such plays, ranking ninth in the NFL with 6.7 yards after the catch per reception. Overall, he recorded 79 catches for 990 yards and three scores in just 11 games, and Pro Football Focus grades him as the league’s best receiver.
As the season has gone on, Stafford has begun to lean on the second-year receiver more and more. Nacua leads the team with a 29.9% overall target share and ranks second behind tight end Tyler Higbee on throws within the opponent’s 20-yard line (27.1%), although he lags behind both Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson on throws into the end zone. He has received at least eight targets in each of his last nine games, including a nine-catch, 113-yard performance against the Eagles in Week 12.
Philadelphia has allowed just 2,202 receiving yards to opposing wideouts this season, the third-fewest in football, as well as the fourth-fewest fantasy points, so it won’t necessarily be an easy matchup for Nacua. However, with how good the Eagles’ run defense is — they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards and fewest total touchdowns to opposing running backs — Stafford will likely be incentivized to throw the ball on Sunday afternoon, which will give Nacua plenty of opportunities to rack up yards.
Fades
Cooper Kupp ($7,400) – The 2021 AP Offensive Player of the Year might be officially washed up, unfortunately for Rams fans. While he still put up respectable counting stats this season — 67 catches, 710 yards, and six touchdowns despite playing just 12 games — his advanced numbers have taken somewhat of a hit and he’s just Pro Football Focus’ 50th-ranked wide receiver. He averaged just 3.3 yards of separation, a roughly-average figure among wideouts with at least 45 targets this season, and by the eye test, he simply didn’t look as explosive or elusive. Stafford targeted him just nine times over the final three weeks of the season and only once in the Wild Card Round victory.
Philadelphia has a ton of secondary depth — Isaiah Rodgers, Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell, and Darius Slay all rank among Pro Football Focus’ top 30 cornerbacks, and Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson are also top-quality safeties. Given the Eagles’ suffocating defense, there’s no room in DFS lineups for two Los Angeles wide receivers, and if you’re going to go with one, Nacua is the obvious pick.
THE OUTCOME
The Rams looked pretty incredible in the game against the Vikings, jumping out to a 24-3 lead at halftime and tying a playoff record by recording nine sacks. Resting Stafford during Week 18 looked to be a smart decision, and Los Angeles is playing with extra motivation after devastating wildfires ravaged large parts of the city’s northwest. This game will be close, and at minimum, I expect the Rams to cover the six-point spread.
Still, Philadelphia might be the best team in the NFC, and given all the injuries to the Lions’ defense, I’m going to favor them in the NFC Championship as well. I just don’t see a ton of holes in this Eagles team, and they will roster both the best quarterback and best running back on the field on Sunday.
Final Score: Philadelphia 30, Los Angeles 27
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
