GPPs are not won by using all the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about––not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea—lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
This week, with games being played on Saturday and Sunday, we’ll be focusing on both days since the $2.5M Fantasy Millionaire contest has all four games attached to it.
Let’s dive into our Divisional Round picks.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st, TD Throne Eligible]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Lions vs. Commanders
Jayden Daniels ($7,000) – Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700) – Austin Ekeler ($5,100) – Terry McLaurin ($6,300) – Sam LaPorta ($4,200)
No shock here, but if you’re stacking for DFS, I think it’s fairly prudent you center your lineup around the game in a dome with a 55.5 point total, as of writing.
Last week, I suggested starting lineups with a Jayden Daniels stack and he didn’t disappoint, going for 22+ FPTS against Tampa Bay in a game where he “only” rushed for 36 yards. We know Daniels has 100+ rushing yard upside and could even throw for 300+ yards in this game against a Lions defense that allowed the fifth-most passing yards to opposing QBs this season.
Stacking Daniels also gives us tons of juicy options to work with. Austin Ekeler didn’t have the big game against the Buccaneers that I had hoped for, but he still saw solid usage, played on 34 snaps (just three less than Brian Robinson Jr.), and caught three of four targets for 26 yards. The Lions aren’t bad against the rush but allowed 9.7 yards per reception and an 86% conversion rate on targets to opposing RBs this season. Ekeler should bust out in this spot and I doubt he’ll be heavily owned once again.
I do think Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,300) is a viable GPP play and he should be lower owned than Dyami Brown ($3,900) this week, who is cheaper and coming off a massive game. Using Zaccheaus is perfectly fine, but if I’m starting Ekeler/Daniels, then I’ve already differentiated a bit and have no issues getting up to Terry McLaurin to round out a triple stack. McLaurin has averaged 11 targets over the Commanders’ last two games and is in a fantastic matchup against Detroit which has struggled with opposing WR1s this season, especially vs. teams with decent lines and mobile QBs. They allowed 330+ yards to Caleb Williams/Josh Allen in back-to-back weeks and gave up 377 yards to Brock Purdy who was sacked the 11th fewest times in the league per game.
If Daniels’ mobility can keep him upright, he should have a great shot at pushing McLaurin to another huge outing with big plays downfield.
On the Lions’ side, I love this spot for Sam LaPorta, who has put together some big games down the stretch. LaPorta has posted target shares of 20%+ in each of his last three games and has scored four TDs over his last six games. The Commanders have struggled all season vs. opposing TEs allowing 8 TDs to the position, which was tied for fifth-most in the league.
Finally, while I get there will be some tail risk with David Montgomery coming back to take snaps, I do think there is the potential for Jahmyr Gibbs to break this slate, even if his snaps get dialed back a bit. Gibbs will be taking on a Commanders’ defense that ranked 27th in EPA per play against the run this season and just allowed Bucky Irving to rush for 77 yards last week and catch a TD. Gibbs has averaged over 6.0 yards per carry in his last two starts and just destroyed the Vikings’ highly ranked rush defense for 139 yards and 3 TDs. It’s quite possible that he comes close to replicating that feat against a significantly worse rush defense (on paper at least) this week.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt ($5,000)
I wouldn’t be shocked if Hunt ended up playing a large role for the Chiefs this week and maybe even out-snap his younger counterpart, Isiah Pacheco.
Even with Pacheco back in the fold, Hunt has remained a big piece of the offense for the Chiefs. He led them in short down and distance carries and was the only RB to receive a handoff inside the five-yard line in each of the Chiefs’ last two games. While he was slightly out-touched by Pacheco in each of those games, Hunt was also the RB who came down with TDs in both contests.
Maybe the Chiefs try to re-establish Pacheco, who has carried them in the playoffs before, but I think there is a great chance their roles remain the same, and that Hunt potentially even sees a bump in usage. Pacheco hasn’t looked like the same player since coming back from a significant leg injury and has averaged under 3.0 yards rushing per game in his last three starts.
Either way, I don’t think Hunt will be very highly-owned in this spot at all this week for DFS which may be a bit of a mistake. The Chiefs are still -8.5 favorites and if they’re in the red zone late (or at any point in this game) will likely look to stay away from an opportunistic set of corners on the Texans. I could see Hunt not only out-performing in the usage area but also on the TD ledger, where he’s produced down the stretch.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper ($4,400)
The weather will be cold in Buffalo this week, but the wind may not be all that bad and there is a chance the game could avoid snow flurries and the like for at least portions of the contest. If that happens, then I think some of the Bills WRs could really outperform in this spot.
As we saw last week, the Ravens’ secondary is still susceptible to big plays downfield. They allowed George Pickens to go for 87 yards and a TD last week and also gave up big plays downfield to Van Jefferson and Mike Williams. Just given the pressure that the Ravens offense puts on teams, it’s not hard to see Josh Allen having to drop back a lot in this game and being forced to beat the Ravens through the air.
While Cooper’s usage has been spotty, I also think he’s likely the best chance the Bills have of making some big plays downfield. He has gone for 50+ yards in three of his last six games and with the season on the line, he feels like a player who could see his snaps increase this week.
Either way, he’s someone I love pairing with Allen this week but also like as a one-off value on his own. Even on limited snaps, he’s got the ability to break this secondary downfield for a long TD and pay off what is a very affordable price tag.
Xavier Hutchinson ($3,200)
We have to watch the injury news on the Texans front, but as of now it seems very probable that WR3 Robert Woods will miss this game. Already down Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and now Diontae Johnson (cut this week), the Texans will be down to John Metchie and Nico Collins as their starting WRs if Woods can’t go, which will leave Xavier Hutchinson as their WR3.
Hutchinson isn’t without some upside either. He’s been in this offense for a couple of seasons now and is a big downfield receiver who makes for a good downfield target for C.J. Stroud. Last week, he came up with a big 34-yard catch vs. the Chargers and if he sees more snaps with Woods out then he’d potentially see his route tree expanded. At $3,200, he becomes a viable punt option for GPPs if the injury news breaks his way.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely ($3,500)
The Ravens will again be without Zay Flowers this week making it highly probable we’ll see a big game from either Mark Andrews or Isaiah Likely. Andrews is much more likely to be the chalk in this scenario, which has me leaning towards Likely as the better option, who is also the younger and more explosive player. The 24-year-old has started to come on a bit after being a role or situational player for much of the season, posting 38 and 53 yards in his last two games and posting target shares of 17% and 21% in each of those two contests.
While he hasn’t broken out yet, we know Likely’s potential when he gets more primary targets. He went for 9 receptions, 11 yards, and a TD in Week 1 vs. the Chiefs and has become somewhat of a favorite red zone target for Lamar Jackson, who found Likely six times in the regular season.
The Bills’ choice in this game will either be to get run over by Derrick Henry or take their chances leaving Likely in one-on-one or zone coverage. I personally think Likely will be the one the Bills gamble on and if they do he should have plenty of opportunities this Sunday to pay off at lower-ownership.
Defense/Special Teams
Rams D/ST ($2,700)
I think most people will be looking to own at least one big piece of the Eagles offense this week, with Saquon Barkley potentially being the most heavily-rostered player across many contests. That means the Rams’ D/ST will become a nice leverage play as a big game for them, similar to last week (9 sacks, 1 DTD, and 23 FPTS), would likely mean a horrid day for many of the Eagles’ big names.
The Rams as a unit have come together down the stretch in spots as well. They limited the 49ers to just six points on the road in a massive game in Week 15 and ranked 9th in the league in sacks per game this season. This is more of a game-theory play than anything else as the Rams will be lightly owned (even for a four-game slate) but they’re also a unit I feel is heavily underrated right now with some very solid young players leading it.
If we get an upset by LA, they stand to be one of the plays of the slate given how cheap they are and the leverage they’ll provide lineups against the Eagles studs.
