As the season nears its halfway point, it is undeniable that the Cleveland Cavaliers are no fluke. Cleveland is on pace for 71 wins, which would be the third-best record in NBA history, and four different Cavaliers players — Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen — have legitimate All-Star cases. While Mitchell, Garland, and Allen have been All-Stars before, Mobley — who’s averaging 19.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting a career-high 42.9% from deep — would be making his first appearance.
It’s also undeniable that the 33-6 Oklahoma City Thunder are no fluke, although only two players — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams — have a realistic shot at appearing in the midseason showcase. Last Wednesday, Oklahoma City and Cleveland battled it out in what has already been considered one of the greatest regular-season games ever, in which the Cavaliers emerged victorious, 129-122.
Tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET, the two teams will run it back, with the stage shifting to the prairies this time.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Cleveland is a two-point underdog and the point total is set to 233. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Mobley.
Best Evan Mobley Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Evan Mobley 11+ Rebounds (+115)
The Thunder have basically no weaknesses, allowing the fewest points, third-fewest assists, fewest steals, and 11th-fewest blocks per game to opponents. They also concede the lowest field goal percentage, lowest three-point percentage, and fifth-lowest free throw percentage, although the latter is probably attributable to luck. But Oklahoma City does have one Achilles heel: it allows 46.5 rebounds per game, the third-most of any team. It’s been a little better over the last 15 games, allowing the 13th-fewest boards with center Isaiah Hartenstein in the lineup.
Unfortunately for the Thunder, Hartenstein will miss the next week with a calf strain, vaulting six-foot-eight Jaylin Williams into the starting lineup. While Hartenstein ranks fifth in the league, snagging 12.2 rebounds per night, Williams averages just 4.0 rebounds per game and launches 83.3% of his shots from beyond the arc, hardly the interior stopper that is capable of controlling the glass against both Mobley and Allen.
Mobley has grabbed at least 11 rebounds 13 times this season, including in each of his past three games. Although he snagged only 10 in the teams’ first matchup, Hartenstein was active. With both Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren out, Oklahoma City has no traditional centers on its roster, so six-foot-five Jalen Williams will probably see some minutes at the five.
Evan Mobley 2PFG 1st Scorer – Exact (+650)
The Cavaliers are likely to win the tip, especially with Hartenstein out. According to a feature on jump ball tosses by The Ringer in February 2024, Allen has won 68.4% of his jump balls, the eighth-best winning percentage in NBA history among players with at least 100 jumps, including 74.5% at that point in the 2023-24 season.
Let’s assume Allen has an 80% chance of winning the jump ball, given his three-inch height advantage over Jaylin Williams. Mobley attempts 22.2% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, and he attempts 77.5% of his shots from two-point range and hits them at a 62% clip. This gives us an 8.45% chance of the game’s first possession ending with a Mobley made two-pointer and a 10.6% chance on every Cleveland possession thereafter. Of course, these chances are lower than the +650 odds would imply, but given that just 32.4% of the Thunder’s possessions end in a made field goal and just 16% end in an made free throw, Mobley is fairly likely to have two shots at making a two-pointer for the game’s first point.
Ultimately, his chances are 8.45% of cashing this bet on the Cavs’ first possession and 5.47% on their second possession. Combined, this gives him a 13.9% chance of scoring the game’s first points with a two-pointer on one of Cleveland’s first two trips down the court, better than the 13.3% chance implied by the odds, even without controlling for the possibility that Oklahoma City fails to score on ensuing possessions after its first.
