The Thunder and Cavaliers are the top two teams in the NBA this season, and they will be going head-to-head in Oklahoma City on Thursday.
Let’s explore how the public is backing this contest.
Betting Splits
The Cavaliers defeated the Thunder 129-122 when these clubs met in Cleveland last week, but most bettors are expecting the Thunder to redeem themselves on their home floor tonight, with 61% of the bets and 66% of the handle on the Thunder when it comes to the spread. This makes sense, with Oklahoma City a league-best 12-5-1 ATS at home this season and their last home loss coming all the way back in mid-November.
When it comes to the moneyline, 56% of the bets and 57% of the handle is on the Cavaliers, which isn’t a surprise given that this game is expected to be a full-blown nail biter, with the Thunder only favored by two points. Naturally, in a competitive setting like this, the slight underdog who carries the more favorable price is likely going to see more action on the moneyline.
As for the total, 72% of the bets and 74% of the handle is coming on the over, which absolutely is a result of last week’s game between these two teams producing a huge 251 points, which is way over tonight’s 233-point line. Also, Isaiah Hartenstien (calf) is out for the Thunder and some bettors likely presume that their defense will suffer without the big man, which is a logical expectation. With Hartenstien off the floor this season, Oklahoma City’s defense is 2.7 points per 100 possessions worse.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for tonight’s game:
- Jarrett Allen Double-Double: Yes (-185)
- Evan Mobley Double-Double: Yes (-135)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-205)
- Jalen Williams Under 21.5 Points (-130)
- Evan Mobley Under 1.5 Made Three Pointers (-215)
Bettors are backing both Allen and Mobley to get double-doubles tonight, which has a ton of merit, as both bigs will likely see huge minutes in a game that is likely to be competitive from start to finish. Plus, the Thunder not having either Hartenstien or Chet Holmgren (hip) available makes them undersized compared to Cleveland, which could translate into plenty of rebounds and points in the paint. This season, Allen and Mobley rank 10th and 14th in the NBA in double-doubles, respectively.
Gilgeous-Alexander for 30+ points is another unsurprising bet. The MVP candidate has scored 30+ points in 59% of his starts this season and backing him for 30+ points feels much safer than attacking him for over 32.5 points, which is his set prop line for this contest and over his 31.4 PPG average for the season. Another factor here is that Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 31 points when he faced Cleveland last week.
Its the opposite situation for Williams, with the forward going under 21.5 points being the fourth-most popular bet for this game, despite him scoring 25 points vs. the Cavaliers last week. Given this strong outing, under 21.5 points is a very surprising wager to be popular and fading the public and backing him for over 21.5 points feels sharp. Williams has played five games without both Hartenstein and Holmgren this season, and he went over 21.5 points in four of those five contests, for an average of 25.4 PPG.
Despite the -215 price, Mobley under 1.5 made three pointers is a popular prop tonight, which is due to this matchup. The Thunder are the No. 1 rated defense in the league and they are giving up the second-fewest made three pointers per game. Mobley is averaging only 1.2 made threes per contest this season and he went 0-for-3 from deep when he faced Oklahoma City last week.
