We’ve got the Texans vs. the Chiefs and Commanders against the Lions. Two of these teams will be dancing with girls that are Hawaiian while the other two continue to climb up Mt. Playoff Himalayan, hoping to blossom like a Super Bowl dandelion. How to get there is no mystery like the Mayans. The defenses must be defiant while the offenses run smooth like an appliance. Also, no penalties. Stay in compliance!
DraftKings Sportsbook has KC -8.5 over HOU at home with the total at 41.5. DET is -8.5 over WAS at home with the total at 55.5.
DISCLAIMER: This piece was written on Thursday, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Saturday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $500K Saturday Special [$100K to 1st] (Sat Only).
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions ($7,000) – This game has a whopping 55.5 total, so points are expected to be scored. Daniels is the only true dual-threat quarterback on the slate and his floor/ceiling combo is one of the best. Sure, he’s a rookie, in a hostile environment, but he’s proven that he can handle the big stage. He’s put up at least 20 FPTS 12 times this season with three of those over 30. He was slowed down by injury earlier in the season, or those numbers would have been more robust.
In Week 16 against a very good Eagles defense, Daniels went 24-of-39 for 258 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also rushed nine times for 81 yards.
Detroit did face two dual-threat quarterbacks this season. They bottled up Kyler Murray back in Week 3 but then Josh Allen threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns while rushing 11 times for 68 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15.
Running Back
Stud
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders ($7,700) – Gibbs has put up at least 28 FPTS in each of the last four games, with 49 FPTS against Minnesota last week. All of those games were without David Montgomery, though, who is expected back for this one. That said, is Montgomery going to be thrust back into getting 40 to 50% of the snaps? I have my doubts.
Value
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans ($5,000) – It’s a three-headed backfield monster in Kansas City with Hunt, Samaje Perine and Isiah Pacheco. When Pacheco initially returned from injury, he either had the similar or slightly more snaps than Hunt. In Weeks 16 and 17, though, Hunt was at 43 and 48% while Pacheco received 35 and 32%. Hunt has been more involved in the passing game. Against the Texans in Week 16, Hunt rushed 11 times for 55 yards with a touchdown and caught two of three targets for 24 yards. Pacheco carried nine times for 26 yards and hauled in one of two targets for -1 yard.
Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($5,100), Dameon Pierce ($4,200) if Mixon is out
Wide Receiver
Stud
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions ($6,300) – If Daniels is going to have a good game, it’s not all going to be with his legs. He’s going to have to have success through the air as well. McLaurin leads the team with 117 targets. He’s received double-digit targets four times this season, with two of them coming in the last two weeks. He has scored a total of 14 touchdowns, with 10 of those on the road.
Other Options – Nico Collins ($7,600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200), Jameson Williams ($6,100)
Value
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans ($5,200) – It took time for Worthy to get acclimated into the Chiefs offense, but it looks like he’s arrived. In Weeks 15, 16 and 17, Worthy received 11, 11 and nine targets while getting a total of eight carries. He scored three touchdowns over that span and finished with at least 19 FPTS in all. Against Houston in Week 16, Worthy caught seven of 11 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown while rushing three times for 10 yards.
Other Options – Deandre Hopkins ($4,700), Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,300), Dyami Brown ($3,900)
Tight End
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs ($3,300) – On the season, the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most FPTS on average and the most receiving yards to tight ends. Schultz has finished with double-digit FPTS only twice this season. One of those was against Kansas City in Week 16 when he caught five of eight targets for 45 yards and a touchdown.
Other Options – Travis Kelce ($5,000), Sam LaPorta ($4,200)
Defense/Special Teams
Chiefs D/ST vs. Houston Texans ($3,600) – It’s very difficult to rush against the Chiefs and this game is in Kansas City with the Chiefs favored by 8.5 points. The Texans will likely have to tilt towards the air in this one. The pass defense is only 13th in EPA per dropback and the pressure rates have been medicore. The unit did pick off Stroud twice in Week 16 and sacked him twice.
Other Options – Commanders D/ST
