The Houston Texans have been written off ever since Tank Dell went down with a gruesome knee injury on December 21. For a 15-2 team, the Kansas City Chiefs have been written off all season.
Regardless, the two teams have made it to the Divisional Round, where the fourth-seeded Texans will travel to the frigid Great Plains to take on the first-seeded Chiefs. The teams have met once already this season — the game in which Dell got injured — and Kansas City emerged with a 27-19 victory.
The Chiefs are hoping to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls, and they open their playoff campaign with the second-shortest odds to do just that. Meanwhile, Houston is hoping to make the first conference championship appearance in franchise history.
Kansas City is an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 41.5. The Chiefs are -455 on the Moneyline, while the Texans are +350.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
C.J. Stroud ($13,500 CP) – This might be crazy for me to say, but I have more faith in Stroud against the Chiefs secondary than I do in Patrick Mahomes ($15,000 CP) against the Texans secondary, especially when you consider that Mahomes costs $1,500 more as Captain. Houston’s secondary really rattled Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert during the Wild Card Round matchup, forcing him to throw into tight windows all game. The Texans weren’t solely responsible for Herbert’s pitiful performance, but they definitely didn’t make things easy for him.
Meanwhile, Stroud looked pretty unstoppable after the second quarter. The pivotal play happened with two minutes, 24 seconds left in the first half and Houston trailing 6-0, when Stroud fumbled the snap and was chased almost into his own end zone before uncorking a 34-yard pass to wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson. The Texans went onto score on that possession and added another 25 points after that.
Kansas City has been about average against opposing quarterbacks, allowing 3,970 yards and 24 touchdowns while recording 13 interceptions, all of which rank in the middle two quartiles of the league. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, in addition to the eighth-most scores, and while Stroud does most of his damage with his arm, he did rack up a respectable 52 carries and 233 yards on the ground this season, in addition to six carries and 42 rushing yards during the Wild Card Round win. Stroud’s 27-yard scramble at the end of the first half allowed Houston to give itself momentum going into the break.
Travis Kelce ($12,000 CP) – Whether he’s getting old or distracted by dating Taylor Swift or unmotivated after his brother, Jason, retired, Kelce hasn’t quite been the dominant force in 2024 that has made him one of the greatest tight ends in football history. Still, the future Hall of Famer put up 97 catches for 823 yards and three scores, notching his 10th straight Pro Bowl bid. He did have a great final game of the season, hauling in eight passes for 84 yards and a touchdown on Christmas Day.
We haven’t seen the Chiefs’ starters, including Kelce, in 25 days, so the 35-year-old should be well-rested. Historically, he’s stepped up his game in the postseason, recording 165 catches, 1,903 yards, and 19 touchdowns across 22 starts in the playoffs. The latter two figures are records among active players, and the former number is the best in all of NFL history. Kelce needs 342 yards and three touchdowns to become the undisputed postseason GOAT.
The Texans have been pretty decent against opposing tight ends, allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game. They’ve allowed just 709 yards to the position this season — the eighth-fewest of any team. However, Houston allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the fifth-worst mark in football, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Kelce to get in the end zone. This season, he had a massive 26.3% target share on throws within the red zone, and with the lights at their brightest on Saturday, expect Mahomes to lean heavily on his most reliable target.
FLEX Plays
Nico Collins ($10,600) – Although he’s the highest-priced player on Saturday’s slate, it’s for good reason; he put up seven catches, 122 yards, and a score in the Texans’ playoff opener. Including his playoff game, he has put up five 100-yard receiving performances this season, tied for the most in the league. With Dell and Stefon Diggs, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 8, out, he should be Stroud’s primary target on Saturday. This season, he led the Texans in overall target share (25.3%), target share within the red zone (30.8%), and target share on throws into the end zone (23.8%). During Houston’s Wild Card Round win, Stroud threw at him on eight of his 33 attempts, roughly in line with his season average.
I’ve already looked a little bit at the Kansas City secondary, which has given up only the 14th-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Chiefs have allowed 2,359 yards to the position, the sixth-fewest in football, but they’ve also allowed 19 touchdowns, tied for the sixth-most. Collins has found the end zone in seven of his 13 games between the regular season and playoffs and he should be a threat to do so again on Saturday.
Dalton Schultz ($4,400) – For a budget option, consider Schultz, who was limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury but should be ready for the Divisional Round.
Schultz has been a pretty steady target for Stroud throughout the season, hauling in 53 catches for 532 yards and two scores. Although he ranks only fifth on the team in target share, three of the four players ahead of him — Dell, Diggs, and Diontae Johnson — are either injured or have been waived. Stroud targeted him four times during the Texans’ Wild Card Round victory, and although he only put up two catches and 23 yards, it was one of his worst performances of the season. Otherwise, he’s had a relatively consistent role in Houston’s offense, recording at least two receptions in all but one of the Texans’ games.
The main reason why I like Schultz on Sunday is the matchup. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 1,191 yards — the most in football — and five scores, which ranked around the middle of the pack. One reason for the Chiefs’ struggles against the position is their relatively lackluster safety depth; while cornerback Trent McDuffie ranked as Pro Football Focus’ second-best cornerback, starters Justin Reid and Bryan Cook are only the 14th- and 53rd-best safeties, respectively. If Stroud throws over the middle of the field, Schultz should be well-positioned to take advantage.
Fades
Isiah Pacheco ($7,400) – After being a solid piece of Kansas City’s championship core over the last two seasons, leading all postseason participants with 81 carries and 313 yards in the Chiefs’ 2023-24 title run, Pacheco has had a rough season. The broken leg that he suffered in Week 2, which cost him seven games, didn’t help. Still, 83 carries, 310 yards, and one score is far from impressive. His 3.7 yards per carry average would be the seventh-lowest in football if he’d garnered enough carries to qualify. Since his return from injury, he’s put up an unimpressive 175 total yards and appeared in fewer than 40% of possible snaps.
Maybe Pacheco will be healthier since he has had 25 days to recover, but Houston has a really good defensive front that held Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins to just 26 yards during the Wild Card Round. Overall, the Texans have allowed the 11th-fewest yards, sixth-fewest touchdowns, and third-fewest FPTS to opposing running backs. In a battle between two of the league’s top run defenses, efficiency will be at a premium, and this season, Pacheco just hasn’t been that.
THE OUTCOME
I’ve chosen three Houston players among my Captain’s Picks and FLEX options, while fading the Chiefs’ running back. The Texans’ Wild Card Round victory over Los Angeles was really impressive, while the Chiefs are one of the least convincing 15-win teams in memory, going 11-0 in games decided by a single possession. Teams that have rested their starters prior to a bye have not typically done well in the postseason.
What does it all mean?
I really want to pick Houston here, honestly. But Patrick Mahomes is one of the greatest playoff performers the league has ever seen, and Andy Reid holds the head coaching advantage over pretty much everyone. The Texans will lead until the fourth quarter, and Twitter will be laughing at Kansas City. Then, the inevitable will happen.
Final Score: Kansas City 24, Houston 21
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
