I’m not sure how many people could have predicted this Divisional Round matchup six months ago, but now that we’re staring down the barrel of a Commanders-Lions playoffs game, I have to say: This is going to be fun.
Can an upstart Washington squad get the jump on a Detroit team that was dominant all season long? Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Jayden Daniels ($16,500 CP) – Taking the most expensive asset on the slate isn’t exactly a novel idea, yet it’s quite hard to ignore the offensive load that Daniels’ carried for his team in the Wild Card Round. Not only did the rookie pivot attempt 35 passes against the Buccaneers, he also rushed the ball 13 times for 38 yards — the third-most carries that Daniels has had in a start in his brief career. Three of those rushing attempts came in the red zone, which isn’t surprising considering Daniels’ ranked second in the NFL in carries inside the 20-yard line among QBs during the regular season (37). That included 10 goal line attempts, just one fewer than teammate Brian Robinson Jr. ($7,200). Overall, Daniels used his dual-threat abilities to average an impressive 0.59 FPTS per drop back in his freshman campaign, which was the sixth-highest mark in the league. He looks to be healthy again and, in what should be a negative script for the Commanders, I’d expect Daniels will have ample opportunity to throw and scramble on Saturday night.
FLEX Picks
David Montgomery ($7,600) – I’m a little torn on how to deal with Montgomery this week. In an ideal world, I’d get to see the running back perform in a real game environment before having to make a decision, but if that were truly the case for everyone, there wouldn’t be the opportunity for variance. In fact, there wouldn’t be the opportunity for savings, either. Montgomery’s price tag is reflecting the general unease about the veteran’s knee. In Showdown, Montgomery’s salary has consistently been over $8,000 this season, often even surpassing the $9,000 mark. To me, that’s the real draw here. Montgomery is way cheaper than normal and, if he’s anything close to his usual self, that’s a buying window. Montgomery had exceeded 12 FPTS in eight straight games before injuring his knee in Week 15. Despite playing in only 14 contests, Montgomery finished the season with 12 rushing touchdowns — the ninth-most in the league. He’s about as stable a DFS asset that exists. I’ll side with the value and take a chance.
Sam LaPorta ($5,600) – It took till Week 13, but it seems like someone finally reminded Jared Goff ($9,800) that Sam LaPorta was on the Lions’ roster. The overall numbers are a little underwhelming for the former second-round pick, but LaPorta cam alive in the final six weeks of the regular season. In fact, from Week 13 on, LaPorta ranked fourth among all tight ends in catches (32) and fifth in both targets (43) and receiving yards (341). Crucially, LaPorta also racked up 12 red zone targets in this stretch, trailing only the likes of Trey McBride and Travis Kelce — the exact type of company you’d like a TE asset to be keeping. In his last six starts, LaPorta is averaging 15.5 FPTS. It’s a steal to get him at a price tag below $6,000.
Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,400) – This, my friends, is called a pivot play. Everyone and their mother saw Dyami Brown ($4,000) have a career-day last Sunday against the Buccaneers and the fact that he’s $400 cheaper than his teammate is the icing on the cake. However, Zaccheaus has been the better wideout all season long. Heck, if you want to play the recency bias card, let’s remember the last two games of the regular season where Daniels played his full allotment of snaps. In Week 16 and Week 17, Zaccheaus combined for 17 targets, 13 receptions, 155 yards and three touchdowns. Zaccheaus registered 23.3 FPTS and 24.0 FPTS in those contests, respectively. Obviously, you’d rather just stack Daniels with Terry McLaurin ($9,400), but Zaccheaus clearly has upside and the savings are gargantuan. It does hurt that the Lions surrendered the second-most FPTS to opposing WRs during the regular season, either.
Fades
Brian Robinson Jr. ($7,200) – I’m not hating on Robinson because he only rushed for 16 yards last weekend. Though, to be fair, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of the man. From a usage perspective, Robinson Jr. was the Commanders’ lead back against the Buccaneers, finishing with a 50.7% snap share and 14 touches — four of which were receptions. Still, this just seems like a script that’s more suited to Austin Ekeler ($6,200) and his pass-catching abilities. Robinson Jr. has also been pretty underwhelming the past couple of months. The RB has only rushed for more than 70 yards once since the beginning of Week 8, a span where Robinson is averaging a paltry 9.1 FPTS per game. Detroit is a massive 9.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Its induce a league-low 21.7 opponent rushing attempts per contest, which has translated into allowing the fourth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing backfields. This is a terrible spot for Robinson.
Jake Bates ($5,000) & Zane Gonzalez ($4,800) – Dan Quinn was doing his best Dan Campbell impression on Sunday night, aggressively going for almost every fourth down in Buccaneers’ territory. I don’t think either of these coaches wants to use their kicker unless there’s literally no other option. While a big total in Showdown usually suggests kickers are viable, I’d think twice on this specific occasion.
THE OUTCOME
This game is going to have some fireworks and I think the Commanders will be able to hang around with the Lions for at least the first-half. But in the end, the better roster will pull away. Detroit was a league-best 12-5 ATS during the regular season. Meanwhile, Washington is 7-2 ATS at home, but just 4-4-1 ATS on the road. The Lions have already won eight games by double-digits and I think they add a ninth on Saturday.
Final Score: Detroit 38, Washington 24
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
