Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with this league: the injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good and bad chalk, quality or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day, we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or micro-edges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Sixers stars Tyrese Maxey and Paul George to each have a 50% chance to play tonight versus the Knicks. The two stars were mid-day downgrades for Philadelphia ahead of their 7:00 p.m. Eastern home game at the same time Joel Embiid, Caleb Martin, and Andre Drummond were ruled out. Both Maxey and George were also downgraded and eventually ruled out yesterday in the same fashion prior to the front half of their back-to-back versus Oklahoma City, putting their statuses even more in question than they may have been normally.
As we saw in yesterday’s Sixers game where players like Justin Edwards, Jeff Dowtin, and Guershon Yabusele smashed with production — and usual benchwarmers thrust into the starting lineup like Ricky Council IV weren’t too far behind — the Sixers stars’ early season dislike of work leads to a lot of opportunities for the remaining teammates.
Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections allow you to see the data for all the configurations of the Sixers’ remaining roster. For the sake of today’s column, we’ll look at how the data for the Sixers would look with 1) Both George and Maxey playing; 2) One of George and Maxey playing; and 3) If neither plays.
First off, if Maxey and George are available they should be viable DFS plays and prop betting targets with Joel Embiid sidelined. Maxey projects for 27.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, and seven assists. Paul George projects for 19.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and five assists. If they keep this game competitive with the Knicks as a current six-point home underdog, it likely means Maxey and George produced well relative to expectations.
If Maxey sits and George plays, George would take another leap upwards with 22.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. You’d also see a huge 9.4% expected value on Paul George’s current over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook, according to Unabated’s bet simulation tools.
If Paul George sits and Tyrese Maxey plays, Maxey would see a similar jump in projections with 27.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 7.4 assists. You’d also see 6.3% EV on Maxey’s over 36.5 PRAs bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, not quite as good as George’s, but a nice potential return on investment if you bet quickly.
As for the remaining Sixers with available betting markets, here’s how they’d look with both Paul George and Tyrese Maxey unavailable:
- Kelly Oubre Jr. projects for 17.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, and two assists if both Maxey and George are out (16.6 points, six rebounds, and 1.8 assists if only George plays; 15.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.8 assists if only Maxey plays)
- Guershon Yabusele projects for 14.9 points, 7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists if both Maxey and George are out (13.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists if only George plays; 12.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists if only Maxey plays)
If George and Maxey sit, you’d also likely see another start for Ricky Council IV (and perhaps yesterday’s uninvolved DFS chalk Reggie Jackson) along with increased minutes for Justin Edwards and Jeff Dowtin. The Sixers starters’ continued impression of Office Space when it comes to showing up for games has key ramifications for everything related to betting and DFS on tonight’s NBA slate.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
