Western Conference playoff hopefuls clash when the Timberwolves host the Warriors on Wednesday night. Despite a solid 21-18 record, Minnesota has struggled to score consistently since trading Karl-Anthony Towns this offseason. Still, Anthony Edwards is capable of putting on a show against any defense. On the other side, Golden State got off to a strong 12-3 start, only to lose 17 of its last 24 games. Statistical decline from Stephen Curry and an injury to Jonathan Kuminga have made it difficult for the once-dominant Dubs to beat even the NBA’s worst squads.
The similarities between these two teams are obvious. Both play terrific defense, ranking inside the top eight in points allowed this season. In addition, head coaches Chris Finch and Steve Kerr aren’t afraid to utilize their bench, often leading to unpredictable rotations. The Timberwolves enter tonight’s contest as six-point favorites, with the over/under set at 215 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rudy Gobert over 10.5 rebounds (-105)
Rudy Gobert is a flawed player, and it seems like every basketball fan knows it. The Frenchman’s limitations on offense and defending against guards can make for a difficult watch. However, this is still one of the greatest rebounders in recent NBA history. Don’t believe me? Gobert’s career average of 11.71 boards per game places him at 23rd on the all-time list. The three-time All-Star hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, snagging just 10.5 rebounds through 39 appearances.
A down year doesn’t mean the 32-year-old can’t produce a vintage performance. Look no further than January 6th’s game against the Clippers, when the big man hauled in 18 boards. The Warriors are far worse than Los Angeles on the glass, allowing the fifth-most rebounds to opponents this season (53.6). Over Gobert’s last eight outings vs. Golden State, he’s cleared this total five different times. The seven-footer has a prime opportunity on Wednesday against an undersized adversary.
Andrew Wiggins over 15.5 points (-115)
As previously mentioned, Jonathan Kuminga’s ankle sprain looms large over Golden State. Without their second-leading scorer, the Warriors will need other forwards to step up on offense. That includes veteran Andrew Wiggins. The former All-Star has been good, not great this season: 16.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while shooting 45.4% from the field.
The former number one pick has never been the most consistent player, making him a stay-away for many bettors. However, his workload has never been higher than it is right now. A banged-up Golden State team desperate for a win will need its top contributors on the court for as long as possible. Over Wiggins’ previous five games without Kuminga this season, he’s gone over this line four times. The only exception, a 25-minute appearance vs. Miami, came during a blowout loss for the Warriors. Minnesota’s defense is legit, but not scary enough to dismiss a player with little competition on the depth chart.
Steph Curry under 4.5 three-pointers made (+120)
There are a handful of factors behind Golden State’s sudden collapse, but it ultimately comes down to Stephen Curry. The point guard hasn’t been his usual MVP-caliber self, averaging 22.9 points per game while shooting an inefficient 43.3% from the field (39.1 3PT%) since December 1st. For some, those would be terrific numbers, but it’s clear that the future Hall of Famer isn’t playing up to par.
The ten-time All-Star remains a threat on offense, primarily due to his three-point shooting ability. That’s not ideal for tonight, as the Timberwolves excel at forcing teams into bad shots. This season, Minnesota’s opponents have made just 34.5% of their attempts from beyond the arc, third-lowest in the NBA. Curry has gone over this mark just two times over his last seven games. Fading the greatest shooter of all time doesn’t sound great, but his name value is covering up a savvy play at plus-money.
