The Golden State Warriors are in a deep, deep slide. Golden State has lost 17 of its last 24 games after getting off to a 12-3 start and is now below .500 for the first time all season. Combined with a hot run of form by the Sacramento Kings, the Warriors have now fallen all the way to 12th in the Western Conference.
The road won’t get much easier for Golden State tonight against a tough Minnesota Timberwolves team that, despite underperforming for much of the season, is still 21-18 and has the league’s 11th-best net rating over its past 10 games. Below, I’ve detailed the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s nationally-televised matchup.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is a six-point favorite (-245 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 215. Meanwhile, the Warriors are +200 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
The public has little confidence in the Warriors tonight, with 80% of the bets and 76% of the handle being placed on the Timberwolves to win despite Golden State having an implied 32% chance of victory. There are a few big-money bettors taking a risk on the Warriors, as they’ve attracted a slightly larger share of the handle than of the bets. Warriors Moneyline bettors are banking on the notion that the team is a particularly difficult matchup for Minnesota, as Golden State leads the season series so far, 2-1.
Big-money bettors have come in in droves for Minnesota to cover the eight-point spread, as 90% of the handle has come in on the Timberwolves despite only 56% of bets favoring Minnesota to win comfortably. Neither team has been particularly great against the spread this season, since both have somewhat underperformed expectations; the Warriors are just 18-20-1, while the Timberwolves are 15-23-1. Golden State has covered the spread 53.1% of the time when it has been the underdog.
The public is also expecting a high-scoring game, with 87% of all bets and 87% of the handle on the game to go over 215 points. However, Warriors games have typically gone under, with the over hitting in just 16 of Golden State’s 39 games, while in Minnesota’s games, the over is 19-19-1. In terms of recent form, each of the Warriors’ last four games have gone under, while three of the Timberwolves’ last five have. The under looks like an especially enticing prospect if Golden State forward Draymond Green, who has missed each of the past two games with a back injury, is able to suit up tonight.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Wednesday’s game:
- Anthony Edwards 25+ Points (-145)
- Rudy Gobert Double-Double (+130)
- Anthony Edwards O4.5 Assists (-160)
- Trayce Jackson-Davis U8.5 Rebounds (-135)
- Draymond Green O4.5 Assists (-160)
The public appears to be confident in Minnesota’s offense, especially shooting guard Anthony Edwards. The fifth-year guard has been on somewhat of a tear as of late, averaging 33.2 points and 5.5 assists per game on 48.5% shooting from beyond the arc in his last six games. He has scored at least 25 points four times across that span, including a 53-point outburst against the Detroit Pistons on January 4, and he has also dished out at least five dimes in four of his last five games. This season, the Warriors have given up the eighth-fewest points and 14th-most assists per game to opposing players.
Bettors are also backing Golden State’s rebounding struggles to continue. This season, the Warriors have allowed 45.2 rebounds per game, the eighth-worst rate in basketball, and Jackson-Davis is just six-foot-nine and averages just 6.1 rebounds per game, the second-lowest among regular starting centers. Although he had a stretch of two consecutive double-digit rebounding performances against the Detroit Pistons on January 9 and the Indiana Pacers on January 10, he has still failed to grab nine boards in four of his past seven games. It’ll be especially difficult for him to do so against the Timberwolves, who have allowed the 10th-fewest rebounds to opposing players. Gobert is one of the league’s premier rebounders and interior defenders, recording a double-double 16 times this season.
Finally, the public is high on Green to return from a two-game injury absence and continue his playmaking ways. Despite averaging just 5.6 assists per game this season — his lowest since the 2014-15 season, his first as a regular starter for Golden State — Green is one of the league’s best-ever high-post playmakers and still leads the team with an average of 10.4 potential assists per game. He has recorded at least five assists 22 times this season, although he has done so only once in his past four games. Minnesota allows the fifth-fewest assists per game to opposing players (24.3).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
