The NFL Playoffs are about to get serious, as we are now at the final four before the real final four. There are two games on Saturday and two on Sunday, so this weekend should definitely not be a bore. In fact, come Monday, we will all likely be chanting, “We want more!, We want more!” Four teams will be shown the door while the remaining will be excited that with one more win, a trip to the Super Bowl could be in store. That is nothing to ignore.
DraftKings Sportsbook has PHI -6 over LAR at home with the total at 43.5. BAL is -1.5 over BUF on the road with the total at 51.5.
DISCLAIMER: This piece was written on Wednesday, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Special [$500K to 1st] (Sun Only).
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills ($7,800) – These teams met in Week 4 in Baltimore. Jackson only threw 18 times but finished with 24.64 FPTS. He threw two touchdowns and rushed six times for 54 yards and another touchdown. I expect this game to be more competitive than the 35-10 final score in Week 4, which should provide more opportunities for Jackson to rack up fantasy goodies, especially with the defense having to account for Derrick Henry, who eviscerated the Bills defense for 199 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
The floor/ceiling combo is one of the best in the game for Jackson, as he’s gone over 20 FPTS in all but two games this season with four games over 30 FPTS.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,700), Jalen Hurts ($6,800)
Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams ($8,200) – Barkley is going to get fed. The only question is how much will he eat? Barkley received fewer than 20 carries six times this season, with four of those in Weeks 3, 4, 6, and 7. In the Week 12 game against the Rams, Barkley rushed 26 times for 255 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught all four targets for 47 yards. The Rams defense got better as the season progressed, but still finished 24th in EPA per carry defending the run.
Other Options – Derrick Henry ($8,000), James Cook ($6,700)
Value
Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills ($4,800) – In the Week 4 matchup with Buffalo, Hill played 53% of the snaps and received six targets, catching all for 78 yards and a touchdown. The Bills allowed the second-most receptions and saw the second-most targets to running backs on the season.
Other Options – Ty Johnson ($4,500)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles ($7,400) – Nacua is the alpha and new boo for Matthew Stafford in the passing game. He leads the team with 106 targets despite missing six games. Over the last four games, Nacua has received eight, nine, 14, and nine targets while Cooper Kupp garnered a total of 10. Last week, Kupp only played 55% of the snaps. Nacua has put up double-digit FPTS in each of the last nine games, with four over 20 and a high of 44.8 FPTS. Against the Eagles in Week 12, Nacua caught nine of 13 targets for 117 yards.
Other Options – A.J. Brown ($7,000)
Value
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens ($5,000) – Shakir isn’t a high-upside play, as he’s exceeded 100 yards receiving only twice and scored four times this season. That said, he leads the team with 100 targets and there should be points scored in this one, with the Bills likely having to tilt towards the air. Baltimore plays man defense at the 10th-highest rate in the league (34.7%) while Shakir runs most of his routes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and has a catch rate over 90%. In the Week 4 meeting, Shakir hauled in four of five targets for 52 yards.
Other Options – Devonta Smith ($5,600), Rashod Bateman ($4,900)
Tight End
Stud
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams ($3,900) – Goedert received five, five and four targets before missing the next four games due to injury. He returned two weeks ago and garnered six targets in both contests. In the Week 12 game against the Rams, he caught four of five targets for only 19 yards, but the Rams ended the season allowing the second-most FPTS, third-most receptions, and third-most targets to tight ends.
Other Options – Mark Andrews ($4,500), Isaiah Likely ($3,500), Tyler Higbee ($3,400) if he plays
Defense/Special Teams
Eagles D/ST vs. Los Angeles Rams ($3,400) – On the season, the unit racked up 16 interceptions, 14 fumbles, 43 sacks, and an interception, finishing with double-digit FPTS in four contests. In the Week 12 matchup with the Rams, the unit had a fumble and five sacks. The Eagles had the second-best EPA per dropback and Matthew Stafford is the only non-dual threat quarterback on the slate.
