The American Express is the first of two Pro-Am events on the PGA’s west coast swing. The event takes place in Palm Springs across a trio of courses that each player will play once on the first three days. The action then swings back to the TPC Stadium Course for the final round.
For Pick6 lineup building, it’s important to understand which course your player is on for each day. They are all extremely easy, resort courses but TPC Stadium tends to play a little tougher and did have new greens installed this season, which could play firmer and make GIR% go down as a whole.
La Quinta is almost always the easiest of the three venues followed by Nicklaus Tournament. This is important as we are targeting Round markets like Birdie or Better, Bogeys or Worse, and total strokes this week, and with great weather we can expect low scores.
I think there is some great opportunity on the board this week and we can attack this tournament from a couple of different angles on Day 1. The thought process is that we want to target players on La Quinta if possible if we are taking the More Than on markets like Birdie or Better, but the Less Than on Total Strokes and Bogeys or Worse.
While you could certainly try to be contrarian and mix in a More Than on Strokes or Bogeys, it’s really important to remember that you fighting against the tide if you make that play, so be mindful of the numbers/totals you are getting. The average rounds on these courses often end up being 3-4 under par, so anyone shooting par or worse is having an extremely poor outing.
We’ll try to sort through all that chaos and find the best edges this week below.
Tony Finau Less Than 1.5 Bogeys or Worse
Finau shot four under par on La Quinta last season but had a very clean scorecard and was able to post a bogey-free round. It’s not shocking in the slightest as the American has tended to save some of his best golf for these easier layouts which puts less stress on his off-the-tee game. While the putter can still be an issue for Finau he’s also still one of the best ball strikers in the game and rarely misses the green on any of these easy courses.
He’s also become a much better scrambler of late and ranks out a solid 22nd in bogey avoidance in this field. He starts his event on La Quinta this Thursday and for Round 1 I’m more than happy to take the Less Than on his 1.5 Bogey (or worse total). He’d need a pretty subpar effort to come home with 2 or more bogeys or worse on this course.
Patrick Cantlay Less Than 1.5 Bogeys or Worse
A lot of what I just said about Finau will also apply to my next two picks.
Patrick Cantlay hasn’t won in a while, but he’s still a clear top-20 player who has typically played extremely well on Pete Dye-designed venues. While he’ll start his tournament on La Quinta, Cantlay has played all of these venues extremely well. He’s finished top five at this event multiple times and last season produced a bogey-free 64 on La Quinta.
He was far from perfect on his first start in Hawaii this year but his T15 also saw him gain over 2.0 strokes putting and around the green. With almost no wind he should be able to dial up the short irons on this very short venue in Round 1 and deliver a solid round. We only need him to come in with less than two bogeys or worse which I feel confident about given his history at this event.
Sam Burns Less Than 1.5 Bogeys or Worse
I’m targeting this market for the third time in a row, but it’s for good reason. Like Cantlay and Finau, Burns is a top 30 player in the OWGR and will be playing on La Quinta for his first round of play. He is a bit more up and down from a bogey-making perspective than the first two players I took (72nd in bogey avoidance) but he also tends to destroy these easier venues. Last season, he nearly won this event and produced a bogey-free 66 on La Quinta on his lone round there.
Burns also had a strong finish to the season last year and posted a solid T8 in Maui at the season opener. I straight up think these lines are just too generous given the quality of players involved, and the easiness of the course all three men we’ve targeted in this market are playing. I’m happy to back Burns to have less than 1.5 bogeys (or worse) just like his three peers.
This is somewhat of an all-or-nothing approach but with solid weather and three very good players, I feel like it’s more likely things break our way on this trio than not.
Keith Mitchell More Than 5.5 Birdies or Better
Since we can’t make Pick6 lineups with just ‘Less Than’s,’ I thought I’d head to the Birdie or Better Market and keep targeting La Quinta with a More Than on Keith Mitchell. Mitchell finished T30 last week in Hawaii, posting his usual solid effort off the tee, where he gained 4.0 strokes. The American was also solid with his scoring clubs, though, gaining over 1.0 strokes ATG and on the greens.
That’s a good sign for this week, where the approaches will generally be easier and the aggressive Mitchell should be able to make more gains with his irons. Overall, these courses have suited Mitchell just fine. He has finished T22 and T9 at this event the last two seasons and was able to post a 66 on La Quinta last year, which came with seven birdies and just a lone bogey (which came on his opening hole).
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