After a lackluster Wild Card Weekend, the AFC is getting a Super Bowl-quality showdown in round two. The Baltimore Ravens will take the league’s most feared offense on the road to western New York to take on the surging Buffalo Bills.
It will have a boxing main event vibe: Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson—the MVP frontrunners battling it out, with the winner securing a likely date with the reigning champion, Patrick Mahomes. If only it were that simple. There will be 42 other starters on the field, led by a pair of head coaches who desperately need to make a run to New Orleans.
This showdown requires far more nuance, and it’s vital to evaluate the two teams, analyze the prop market, and try to uncover how this game will turn out.
Currently, on DraftKings Sportsbook, this game is essentially a pick-em, with the Ravens a slight -115 favorite to win outright.
Analysis
What will be different this time around?
It’s easy to forget in the midst of the marathon NFL season that these squads have already faced off this season—it wasn’t exactly must-watch television. Baltimore dominated on both sides of the ball en route to a 25-point drubbing.
Todd Monken’s offensive game plan was simple: pound the rock. Derrick Henry finished with 199 yards on the ground, and Lamar Jackson chipped in 54 yards himself. That duo averaged 8.65 yards a carry and looked three steps faster than Buffalo’s front seven.
It was one of Josh Allen’s most startling performances of the season. He mustered just 180 yards through the air and never got out of the blocks. It’s not as if Allen had much of a chance. The dominant offensive line struggled against the likes of Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh, and the receivers struggled to create separation against sticky man coverage.
So why will this go-round be any different? Buffalo’s personnel will play a drastic role. In the prior meeting, Taron Johnson, Matt Milano, and Terrel Bernard were all sidelined with injuries. The latter two are vital run-stuffing linebackers, and Johnson is a force in the secondary. Von Miller was also absent, who can provide relief as a rotational edge rusher.
Even with the injuries, Buffalo finished with the fifth-best EPA against the rush. Against Detroit, with those pieces present, it held Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to 2.6 yards per carry.
The Ravens aren’t the same group, either. In the prior meeting, Henry had only a month in purple and black under his belt. Monken’s offense started flourishing, and Jackson turned in the most efficient passing season of his career.
Who has the edge: Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen?
Lamar Jackson has historically been a dramatic playoff sinker. Heading into this postseason, Jackson played six games, throwing six passing touchdowns and six interceptions. The sharp playoff decline contributed to an abysmal 2-4 mark, where he was routinely the primary catalyst of his club’s downfall.
In his first showing this year against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers, Jackson was fairly good. After a stellar first half, Jackson struggled to slam the door on the familiar foe, giving them life a few too many times when the result should’ve been out of reach. The reigning MVP was without his top target, Zay Flowers, whose status is up in the air for Sunday.
Jackson is 2-2 against Buffalo, and the production has largely been lacking. Sean McDermott has done a phenomenal job of shrinking the field against the dual-threat superstar and eliminating the big play. Jackson’s never sniffed 175 yards passing against the Bills and has had mixed success with his legs.
Allen’s playoff stats are lightyears ahead in comparison. He had a 5-5 record coming in, but the 21 passing touchdowns compared to four interceptions firmly sets him apart from his All-Pro counterpart. Against a phenomenal Denver defense, Allen was in control. He tossed for 276 yards and a pair of scores and completed over 76% of his passes.
Regardless of who had the better statistical campaign, when it matters most, Allen is clearly levels above Jackson. Even if Jackson is “due” for a breakout postseason moment, there’s no actual evidence to support that. Even with Jackson having Derrick Henry to alleviate responsibility, Allen is also playing at a Hall of Fame level and has a resume that holds up at critical junctures. Advantage: Allen.
Best prop bet to consider for Ravens vs. Bills
Buffalo tight end Dalton Kincaid hasn’t been much of a factor in the passing game. Despite the evidence from the first matchup supporting the contrary, Joe Brady’s group can pass against this overzealous secondary. Dawson Knox is an impressive route runner for his size, and if he can squeeze the ball, he has the ability to generate yards after the catch. He should see an expanded role and do some damage on crossers or as an outlet near the line of scrimmage.
Best bet: Dawson Knox 25+ Yards (+195)
Prediction and Outcome
The current forecast suggests it’ll be 16 degrees around kickoff, with snow flurries expected. Buffalo has already played a game like that this season against San Francisco, where throughout the evening, it looked like the Bills were playing on a different surface than their West Coast opponent. John Harbaugh’s squad will be more familiar with the conditions than a group from the Bay Area, but Buffalo lives for snow games.
Everything is lining up perfectly for the Bills. Flowers sitting out or playing under 100% will make an already thin wideout core extra vulnerable. Buffalo’s defense is the healthiest it’ll be and has thrived against Jackson in the past. Allen is in peak form and often looks unstoppable. Plus, Buffalo has a real home-field advantage between the rabid Bills Mafia and unique weather conditions from the nearby Lake Erie.
The margins will be thin; this game should go down to the wire. I’m expecting a mid-scoring affair and will trust who I perceive to be the better quarterback with his loaded cavalry of reinforcements.
