It can be hard to find consistency in NBA player performance in the weeks leading up the All-Star Break. No need to worry. We’ve done a deep dive to find the most and least consistent players this season to help you identify which players to target and which to avoid!
Player Scoring Variance
We analyzed the 2024-2025 NBA scoring data to determine the most and least consistent scorers in the NBA. To focus on players that are most likely to be available in the prop market, we isolated our data set to include players who average 25+ minutes per game and have played a minimum of 20 games this season. The scoring and playing time for each of these players was then compared to derive a point-per-minute value. A variance value was then calculated for the point-per-minute value for each game played this season to identify which players have the lowest variance and highest variance points per minute.
Topping the list as the most consistent player is Josh Hart from the New York Knicks. Hart is averaging 14.3 points in 37.5 minutes this season. He has only scored less than 10 points in 5% of his games this season (two games) and only exceeded 20 points in 10% of games this season. He is a very reliable 10-to-20 point scorer each night. On the bottom of the list is CJ McCollum. McCollum is averaging 22.4 points in 33.6 minutes this season. While these are great averages, he’s been inconsistent from game to game, scoring over 20 points in 56% of his games this season, but under 14 points in 26% of games this season. It is tough to know which version of McCollum shows up each night!
Take a look at the rest of the chart to see the other low variance (green) and high variance (red) players! Let’s continue by taking a few low-variance players from our list to create a Same Game Parlay (SGP) on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s NBA slate.
DEN Nuggets at DAL Mavericks
In the top 15 of our Player Scoring Variance chart, three players from the DEN @ DAL game tonight stand out. Let’s see if we can put them together to create a SGP for tonight.
Christian Braun 8+ Points (-255)
While Braun’s scoring will certainly be impacted by presence of Aaron Gordon in the Nuggets lineup, he continues to be one of the most consistent scorers in the league. He has only exceeded 18 points four times this season but also has only scored less than 8 points just twice this season. This represents a 95% hit rate for scoring 8+ points, including his most recent game vs. Dallas.
Michael Porter Jr. 12+ Points (-370)
Despite all the trade talk, MPJ continues to be one of the most consistent scorers in the league. He has scored 12+ points in 87% of games this season, including 13 points in his most recent game vs. Dallas despite being limited to only 25 minutes of playing time. MPJ is projected to play 30+ minutes in tonight’s rematch.
Dereck Lively II 6+ Points (-475)
Lively has scored 6+ points in 81% of games this season. This rises to 88% of games in which he plays 20+ minutes. This also includes a perfect 12-for-12 in games with 20+ minutes and Luka Doncic out. He had a dominant games vs. Denver on Sunday, scoring 14 points in 26 minutes of playing time. He should easily get to 6+ points again tonight!
+100 Same Game Parlay (SGP)
Combining these three adjusted lines from our low variance players together will give us a beautiful +100 NBA SGP for Tuesday night!
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