The Monday, January 13th slate contains just six NBA games, with an emphasis on the late game.
The night will tip-off at 7:00 p.m. ET in a matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Washington Wizards. Then, a half hour later there will be two games tipping off between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks as well as the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors. At 8:00 p.m. ET, the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies will face off. There is a late-night double-header as the Los Angeles Lakers will face the San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Clippers will host the Miami Heat.
With plenty of action on the NBA schedule, here are my favorite prop bets across the Monday slate.
Jonas Valančiūnas 18+ Points & Rebounds (-120)
The Washington Wizards remain in the bottom tier of the NBA but have gotten some solid production from Jonas Valančiūnas. The veteran big man is averaging 11.8 points and 8.1 rebounds across just 19.9 minutes per game on the season. His level of opportunity varies on a night-to-night basis depending on the matchup. Across the past five games, Valančiūnas saw as few as 3:55 of game time and as much as 33:12 of game action but this is a matchup I expect Valančiūnas to make an impact in.
Washington will match up with the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Over the past ten games the Timberwolves rank 25th in the NBA in opponents’ second-chance points. Valančiūnas is one of five players in the NBA to rank in the top-30 in offensive rebounds per game while playing less than 20 minutes per game. Looking at the season-long sample size, Minnesota ranks 20th in team rebounding. Rudy Gobert will struggle with Valančiūnas’ physicality and he likely will have some stretches matched up with Naz Reed where he will be especially impactful.
Expect at least two rotations in which Valančiūnas comes in and physically imposes himself. He is one of the premier rebounders in the entire sport and his combination of size and strength will be problematic for the Timberwolves. Valančiūnas is averaging 19.9 combined points and rebounds and has recorded 18+ in 22 of the 36 games. Look for him to add to this total tonight and be a factor in the matchup with Minnesota.
Ausar Thompson Under 7.5 Points (-125)
Down in Houston, Amen Thompson is amid his second-year breakout and has seen some notable growth in his statistical output and importance to the team. In Detroit, the opposite is happening to his twin brother. While the Pistons have also improved their results in the standings and are being looked at as a more serious team, Ausar Thompson has seen his level of opportunity decrease and his stats remain limited.
Across the 17 games he has played, Ausar Thompson is averaging 7.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. He is shooting just 28.6% from beyond the three-point arc and 46.2% at the free-throw line. While the sample size is still relatively small, these are concerning marks for the 21-year-old. Detroit has moved to 20-19 on the season and is eighth in the Eastern Conference. Veterans like Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Simone Fontecchio, and Tim Hardaway Jr have provided more consistent positive minutes and there is no longer the leniency to allow Thompson to play through his mistakes with Cade Cunningham’s All-Star leap upon us.
The Pistons will face off with the New York Knicks tonight who play a scrappy brand of basketball. They rank eighth in the NBA in points allowed, seventh in transition points, and give up the third-fewest points of turnovers. Expect Thompson to fail to assert himself in transition and for the offense to be hard to come by in the halfcourt. Thompson has been held to under 7.5 points in nine of the 17 games he has played including three of his past five. Expect this trend to continue tonight and wait for his shooting to improve before he can consistently be looked at as a legitimate scoring threat.
Zach Edey Over 6.5 Rebounds (-130)
The Memphis Grizzlies will travel to face the Houston Rockets tonight. These teams sit in second and third place in the Western Conference with both looking the be ahead of their expected curve as their youthful rosters begin to mature.
Houston ranks ninth in opponent rebounds and leads the league in rebounding overall. However, Zach Edey’s 7-foot-5 frame and significant strength will provide some unique issues in this game. Edey is averaging 10.2 points and 7.5 rebounds across his 21.2 minutes per game. Edey has tallied over 6.5 rebounds in 16 of the 25 games so far this season. He struggled in the first matchup against the Rockets recording five fouls in under 18 minutes of play and being limited to just three rebounds. This happened on Thursday and was his third-lowest rebounding output on the season.
Expect better results from Edey as he prepares to match up with the Rockets for the second time. Houston is excellent at team rebounding but Alperen Sengun is the only individual player averaging more than 7.6 rebounds per game. Expect Edey’s physical presence to make an impact and for the rookie to be hungry for better results. He has flashed his competitiveness and mental toughness already this season; count on a focused effort from the big man in his second matchup against the Rockets.
Kawhi Leonard Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+105)
Kawhi Leonard is prepared to play his third game this season as the Clippers take on the Miami Heat. He made his season debut on January 4th and will continue to be on a minutes limit. He played 19:25 and 20:41 of game time across his first two matchups. While he is averaging just ten points per game across these two performances, Leonard has shot five-of-ten from beyond the three-point arc across these two games.
The Clippers have not played since Wednesday, January 8th and Leonard missed this game so he has not suited up since the 6th. With seven days in between the last time he was on the floor, expect a bit of an expanded opportunity as he begins to return to form. Leonard shot 41.7% from beyond the arc last season and 41.6% the season prior while attempting nearly five three-point attempts per game. As he settles into whatever the new normal is for his knee and body, expect him to be more comfortable settling for long-range shots. His 9.0 three-point attempts per 36 minutes is a significant career-high, with his previous being 6.3, with it admittedly being a small sample size.
Miami ranks 17th in three-point attempts and their perimeter defense has further sunk following the trade request from Jimmy Butler. This will be just his second game back in the Intuit Dome for Leonard and the matchup will carry some additional weight as the effects of the tragic fires continue across the state. The Clippers still will only go as far as Leonard can take them and look for him to continue to build up his production tonight. Expect this to be his best scoring output and be confident in Leonard knocking down at least two three-pointers for the third straight game.
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