Just about the only positive—let alone redeeming—moment for the Los Angeles Chargers in their one-and-done Wild Card playoff loss to the Texans was Ladd McConkey’s 86-yard touchdown reception. The very same play, as it would turn out, which crowned him Saturday’s King of the End Zone on DraftKings Sportsbook. It was always going to be tough for anyone in the Ravens/Steelers game to beat out 86 yards, so McConkey sort of vice-gripped the regime from the get-go.
Yesterday, Curtis Samuel’s 55-yard touchdown took the throne away from Troy Franklin’s 43-yard bomb from Bo Nix.
Derrick Henry was the short-odds favorite to be King of the End Zone on the first day of the NFL playoffs, and Saquon Barkley was the favorite on the second. Saquon didn’t hit the end zone, and Henry didn’t score any long ones.
So, will tonight’s short-odds favorite, Kyren Williams, potentially rip off a long one and become Monday Night Football’s King of the End Zone?
King of the End Zone — What You Need to Know
Analysis: Can Kyren Williams be King of the End Zone on Monday Night Football
Right. So we’ve all familiarized ourselves with the promo now that we understand that we are evaluating our next succession plan for the NFL throne—indeed, searching for a crownless again to make king—only if this candidate scores the longest touchdown of the day.
Before we get into Kyren Williams, let’s take a look at Brian Flores’ elite defensive unit for the Vikings, and how they’ve handled the rush headed into the playoffs.
How Minnesota’s defense attacked explosive rushing plays in the second half of the season
Let’s start by taking a look at Minnesota’s overall defense during the second half of the season (Weeks 12-18 specifically) so as to get a sense of how the unit rolled into the playoffs.
We care, really, only about the rushing defense for this promo (Y-axis). Note how the Vikings are only just above league-average in defending the run during this time. That might mean the Rams aren’t going to shy away from getting Kyren 15-20 carries in this game.
But it’s the longest touchdown of it all we need to concern ourselves most with, right? So, just like we did with the analysis on Derrick Henry’s King of the End Zone outlook on Saturday, we’ll take a look at the Vikings’ susceptibility to explosive run plays.
If you take away the Panthers’ egregious 46 explosive run plays allowed during Week 12-18, the Vikings are tied for sixth in the league for most explosive plays on the ground. They’ve given up 21, and the next closest to the Panthers is the Browns at 28. Which is to say: the Vikings rank among the league’s worst in protecting against long rushing plays.
That bodes well for Kyren Williams’ shot at, potentially, being King of the End Zone tonight.
Kyren Williams does a lot of it himself
Check out this ridiculous stat about just how effective Kyren Williams is as an individual runner with a the ball in his hands.
Sure—we’re all skeptical these days about just how much yards per carry (YPC) is an indication of a running back’s individual effectiveness. But there’s no question he’s improved as his offensive line has gotten healthier, and the stat we care about the most, here, is the +67 rushing yards over expected (RYOE).
That means, just like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams puts himself in position routinely to make it to the second-level and potentially break off a long touchdown.
While he hasn’t logged many plays of 20+ yards, Kyren Williams’ two longest rushes of the season (30 and 27 yards—admittedly, quite low) were both against playoff-caliber defenses, however. He broke off that 30-yarder against the Packers in Week 5 (with a patchwork offensive line), and ripped the 27 yards on a first down play against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Verdict
Kyren Williams to be King of the End Zone on Monday Night Football? – Yes.
The benefit here is that it’s only one game. We’re only dealing with two 53-man rosters for this promotion tonight, and there aren’t any gadget receivers like Dyami Brown, Curtis Samuel, Marvin Mims Jr., Calvin Austin III, etc., to necessarily fear. And Kyren’s due to break off a long one; what better time for it to happen during a game when we’re expecting the purple-and-yellow to dominate the air raid?
There are the Justin Jeffersons and Jordan Addisons. There’s Demarcus Robinson, too, and Jailen Nailor—these being the gadgetiest of tinker-tailor-soldiers to score long touchdowns tonight. I don’t want any of them in my KOTEZ parlay for tonight, though.
And, remember—since this is only one game, you can make your King of the End Zone parlay up to three potential touchdowns. Here’s my favorite for the night. Warning—it’s a bit wacky.
- Kyren Williams Anytime TD
- Vikings D/ST Anytime TD
- Tutu Atwell Anytime TD
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