The Los Angeles Clippers return home to Los Angeles to face the Miami Heat tonight. This will make the first game back at the Intuit Dome since the outbreak of California wildfires and the second home game superstar Kawhi Leonard is set to suit up for.
As a team, the Clippers hold a 20-17 record and sit seventh place in the Western Conference. They have done a nice job staying afloat amid Leonard’s continued injury issues, but there is no doubt the team will only reach its ceiling with their star player on the floor.
In his season debut, Leonard played 19:25 of game action and finished with 12 points, three rebounds, an assist, and a steal. In his second game, he logged 20:41 of action and produced eight points, two rebounds, two assists, and a steal. The Clippers have been off since January 8th and Leonard sat that game, so he has been off since the 6th. While a minutes limit is still expected, he will continue to take the next step up his ramp-up process tonight.
The Clippers enter this game as 7-point favorites and -278 on the Moneyline. The Heat hold +225 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 215.
Best Kawhi Leonard Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Leonard’s props are listed at over/under 13.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 made three-pointers and 19.5 combined points, rebounds and assists.
Kawhi Leonard Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-105)
Three-point shooting is not at the top of the list when you think of what Kawhi Leonard brings to the table as a basketball player, but it may prove increasingly important at this stage of his career, especially with the injury history in mind. Across his first two games back on the court, Leonard has shot 5-of-10 from beyond the three-point arc, knocking down three three-point shots in his first game and a pair of perimeter shots in his second.
While the sample size is admittedly small, Leonard is attempting a career-high 9.0 three-point attempts per 36 minutes, with his previous career-high being 6.3. The two-time NBA champion shot 41.7% from beyond the arc last season and 41.6% in the season prior while launching nearly five three-point attempts per game. In addition, the Clippers face a Miami Heat team that ranks 17th in three-point attempts allowed, and concerns with their perimeter defense have further increased following the trade request by Jimmy Butler.
This will be just the second game in the Intuit Dome for Leonard and the team is still focused on bringing him into the flow of the offense. While he settles into what his body can handle at this stage of his career, expect him to show an increased willingness to settle for perimeter jump shots. There has been league-wide growth in this area and Leonard is just now having his chance to get in on the action. He has recorded over 1.5 made three-pointers in both games thus far, so expect him to build off this tonight with Miami’s perimeter concerns in mind.
Kawhi Leonard Over 19.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125)
There is no doubt that Kawhi Leonard is capable of cruising past 19.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists if he is given the proper opportunity. The question is availability, and there is not a clear outlook on this. Neither Kawhi Leonard nor Ty Lue have gone into much detail regarding what the ramp-up plan is, but with a full week since he last took the floor, I am optimistic Kawhi will see some additional time on the floor tonight.
Across the two games he has played, Leonard is averaging just 10.0 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. He has shot just 7-of-22 (31.8%) from the floor although he is five-of-ten (50.0%) from beyond the three-point arc. Considering he has shot just 2-12 on twos thus far, I am buying the dip and believing in a better shooting performance.
Looking at last year’s production, Leonard recorded over 19.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in 64 of the 68 games he played. This includes 50 of the 68 games in which he scored more than 20 points. Time off impacts every player differently, but from the wider scale of his career, Leonard has done an excellent job picking up where he left off when he misses an extended period.
Now prepared to play his third game for the Clippers this season amidst the added emotions of the return to California after Saturday’s game fire-related postponement, expect Leonard to have a statistical breakout tonight. He is plenty capable of making a strong impact on the boards and as a playmaker as well, so I prefer the combo bet for tonight’s action. The Heat also rank 27th in opponent rebounds allowed, which could lead to some additional rebounding opportunities.
One way or another, I expect this to be Leonard’s best game this season and I feel confident in him breaking out for his top scoring output thus far. Keep an eye out for any pre-game comments regarding Leonard receiving additional time on the floor, but count on him to record over 19.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists for the first time this season.
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